NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	5.1 [778]		MVP	Lionel Simmons (SAC): +15.8%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	1.2 [529]		LVP	Acie Earl (TOR): -15.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lionel Simmons	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	6	81%	0.16	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	10	64%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	53%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	70%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Billy Owens	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	9	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	18	37%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.01	0.05	10	68%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donald Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	17	67%	0.18	6	-0.16	6	67%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Lohaus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sharone Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	12	43%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Walt Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	13	52%	0.05	5	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	9	29%	-0.11	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Acie Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	9	40%	-0.04	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	26.5	15.6	23.8	1.6	36.3	130.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +8.3%

SAC +9.5%

TOR -14.2%

SAC +38.7%

SAC +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	17.3	15.6	108.9	97.8	104.4
season	15.4	16.1		102.4	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		105.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	9.6	17.8	16.6	16.1	14.9
TOR	21.3	17.4	14.7	15.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	41	42	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	2	7	17.2	12.9	4.30	17.0	17.6	-0.55
Mitch Richmond	85	84	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	2	7	14.7	17.6	-2.91	17.4	16.8	0.57
Olden Polynice	74	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-1	13	14.6	15.9	-1.24	17.2	17.9	-0.73
Tyus Edney	34	34	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	-2	15	16.5	13.9	2.64	16.9	17.6	-0.78
Lionel Simmons	56	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	3	5	16.4	12.3	4.16	16.0	19.3	-3.35
Corliss Williamson	45	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	7	-3	12.9	16.8	-3.98	19.4	15.2	4.17
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	60	58	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	10	-9	13.5	17.5	-3.92	17.2	17.5	-0.27
Billy Owens	55	56	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	12	-13	14.1	16.1	-1.97	17.7	16.7	0.97

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Earl	47	48	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.27	8	-19	27	19.2	15.3	3.93	16.2	13.3	2.94
Donald Whiteside	20	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-6	1	24.7	15.2	9.56	13.0	15.4	-2.32
Brad Lohaus	16	16	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-4	-3	16.2	17.6	-1.33	15.9	14.6	1.24
Doug Christie	69	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-5	-1	17.0	18.3	-1.31	15.1	13.9	1.23
Hubert Davis	29	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-3	-5	18.1	17.0	1.09	15.5	14.5	0.92
Damon Stoudamire	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-6	1	15.1	26.3	-11.28	15.2	13.4	1.83
Sharone Wright	30	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	2	-15	15.8	18.1	-2.37	12.8	15.9	-3.08
Walt Williams	78	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-2	-7	17.5	16.2	1.32	14.5	17.2	-2.67
Popeye Jones	85	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-1	-9	17.1	23.0	-5.93	14.6	20.0	-5.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.11,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.04,0,0,0	94.5%
MIL 118, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.2,0.03,0,0,0	94.4%
HOU 93, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.16,0	94.2%