NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	10.3 [63]		MVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): +31.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	109		Comeback	7.0 [30]		LVP	Dylan Harper (SAS): -23.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.32	0.13	0.20	0.01	13	68%	0.36	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	15	65%	0.20	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Victor Wembanyama	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.02	11	65%	0.28	5	-0.17	12	75%	-0.01
Stephon Castle	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	16	65%	0.21	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.04
Keldon Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	10	25%	-0.11	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Dylan Harper	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.14	-0.10	-0.01	13	29%	-0.09	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	55%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ajay Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	9	56%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	61%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.02	16	45%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	23	58%	0.14	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.05
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.06	0.02	8	61%	0.02	1	-0.03	12	83%	-0.04
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	7	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	0.0	33.8	0.0	35.2	0.0	49.6	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.7%

SAS +8.4%

SAS +13.2%

OKC -13.5%

SAS +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	13.4	13.5	14.2	103.7	101.9	113.7
season	13.8	13.8		117.9	116.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		105.3	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	13.4	12.3	13.9	13.4
OKC	13.2	13.8	13.9	13.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	73	73	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.38	17	-15	32	13.3	13.5	-0.21	13.9	12.7	1.20
Stephon Castle	98	98	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	-5	12	13.4	13.1	0.27	13.7	11.7	2.03
Devin Vassell	93	94	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-1	4	13.6	11.9	1.64	13.7	12.3	1.38
De'Aaron Fox	105	105	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	0	2	13.6	1.5	12.08	13.7	2.5	11.23
Harrison Barnes	89	89	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	1	0	13.7	11.7	1.96	13.9	11.8	2.03
Luke Kornet	86	84	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.56	-8	10	-18	14.1	10.3	3.76	13.5	13.5	0.06
Julian Champagnie	94	93	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.47	-7	9	-16	13.5	12.0	1.54	13.3	14.9	-1.53
Dylan Harper	86	86	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	6	-10	13.9	11.2	2.69	14.0	11.4	2.61
Keldon Johnson	72	72	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.08	-12	14	-26	13.6	12.8	0.83	13.3	14.0	-0.67

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Caruso	97	98	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.51	13	-15	28	13.4	14.5	-1.08	13.8	8.8	5.00
Chet Holmgren	83	83	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.48	12	-14	26	13.6	13.2	0.35	14.0	11.1	2.93
Aaron Wiggins	85	84	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	3	-8	14.1	11.2	2.95	13.4	13.3	0.06
Luguentz Dort	77	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	4	-10	14.4	11.2	3.23	14.1	11.4	2.62
Cason Wallace	104	105	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-1	0	13.9	1.7	12.20	13.5	3.5	10.04
Ajay Mitchell	106	106	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-1	0	13.6	3.0	10.62	13.5	0.0	13.48
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	104	103	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-2	2	13.9	1.7	12.20	13.8	3.0	10.76
Jaylin Williams	89	89	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-1	0	13.5	13.4	0.09	13.2	14.2	-0.98
Jalen Williams	100	100	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-3	4	13.7	10.7	3.01	13.6	9.6	4.05
Isaiah Hartenstein	76	75	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.44	-8	6	-14	14.0	12.3	1.74	13.7	12.5	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.73,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.48,0.28,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.37,0.31,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 110, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.66,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.14,0.09,0	91.5%
NOH 93, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	90.3%
POR 92, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.64,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.42,0	90.2%