NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	109		Excitement	8.2 [248]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +25.8%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	4.7 [237]		LVP	Davion Mitchell (MIA): -9.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Grimes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Dominick Barlow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Maxey	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	20	49%	0.07	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Paul George	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	18	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	25	47%	0.10	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
VJ Edgecombe	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	8	72%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Justin Edwards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adem Bona	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	14	39%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,-0.03,-0.1,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.20	0.01	24	57%	0.43	3	-0.17	5	60%	-0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.07	-0.03	13	52%	0.14	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.04	11	66%	0.16	2	-0.06	13	92%	0.10
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	13	62%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	9	50%	-0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	0.0	27.4	0.0	38.4	0.0	32.9	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.9%

MIA +1.1%

MIA +27.9%

PHI -4.2%

PHI -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	13.4	14.2	107.9	114.4	113.7
season	14.5	12.9		113.6	114.3
opponent	14.5	13.9		112.0	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.3	17.3	12.8	14.8	14.7
MIA	12.3	15.5	13.4	13.0	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Edwards	25	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-3	-4	14.1	14.8	-0.72	12.6	13.7	-1.12
Dominick Barlow	53	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	1	-12	15.4	13.9	1.50	12.7	14.2	-1.50
Quentin Grimes	94	95	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	14.7	14.1	0.56	13.5	12.4	1.06
Kelly Oubre Jr.	94	95	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	14.4	17.7	-3.28	13.2	15.2	-1.98
Paul George	101	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.7	0.0	14.66	13.4	0.0	13.41
Tyrese Maxey	101	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.7	0.0	14.66	13.4	0.0	13.41
Adem Bona	63	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.07	-22	12	-34	15.1	14.0	1.11	13.2	13.7	-0.42
Joel Embiid	91	93	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.17	-18	8	-26	15.2	10.1	5.06	13.4	13.8	-0.45
VJ Edgecombe	89	91	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.12	-23	13	-36	15.2	10.3	4.91	13.5	13.0	0.47

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	96	94	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.17	22	-12	34	13.4	14.0	-0.64	15.2	8.0	7.16
Pelle Larsson	89	88	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.18	19	-9	28	12.9	16.4	-3.49	15.1	11.8	3.23
Tyler Herro	102	99	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.16	15	-5	20	13.5	8.5	5.01	14.7	11.5	3.23
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	104	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	13.4	0.0	13.41	14.7	0.0	14.66
Andrew Wiggins	95	93	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	-1	12	13.2	15.2	-1.98	14.5	16.0	-1.45
Kel'el Ware	61	60	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	4	2	13.0	14.0	-0.92	13.7	16.0	-2.29
Simone Fontecchio	36	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.07	6	4	2	13.1	13.6	-0.55	15.4	14.3	1.17
Dru Smith	28	26	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	6	-2	12.3	13.8	-1.54	14.3	14.8	-0.48
Davion Mitchell	89	86	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.16	2	8	-6	13.7	11.6	2.12	14.5	15.7	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.54,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.96,1	91.2%
CLE 123, ATL 130	0.5,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.85,0.69,0.53,0.33,0.26,0.71,0.78,0.84,1	89.5%
UTA 84, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.84,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.65,0.54,0.31,0.55,0.78,0.98,1	89.1%