NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	6.7 [457]		MVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): +42.3%
San Antonio Spurs	125		Comeback	2.1 [578]		LVP	Julian Champagnie (SAS): -9.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper Jr.	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.23	0.09	0.07	11	100%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.18	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.04	0.03	22	62%	0.20	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	24	50%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baylor Scheierman	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Amari Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Shulga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Walsh	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hugo Gonz�lez	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luka Garza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.17	0.19	-0.06	20	75%	0.56	6	-0.13	12	75%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.03	0.07	14	81%	0.17	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.02	7	57%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	64%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dylan Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Carter Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	0.0	29.4	0.0	31.2	0.0	30.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.6%

SAS +1.5%

SAS +14.0%

SAS +2.0%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	13.3	14.2	114.9	123.8	113.7
season	15.5	13.8		118.9	117.9
opponent	14.5	14.3		109.4	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.0	14.7	17.4	14.5	15.1
SAS	12.4	12.9	12.6	15.5	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	35	35	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.03	1	-10	11	14.7	15.4	-0.75	12.9	13.5	-0.61
Luka Garza	64	62	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-6	3	16.2	13.4	2.79	13.1	13.5	-0.37
Jordan Walsh	21	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-5	1	17.0	14.6	2.40	13.2	13.3	-0.11
Jayson Tatum	86	86	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.14	-2	-7	5	15.0	16.2	-1.23	13.2	14.1	-0.92
Max Shulga	22	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-6	3	15.2	15.1	0.10	15.1	12.8	2.36
Amari Williams	24	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-7	5	14.5	15.3	-0.80	15.5	12.6	2.85
Neemias Queta	86	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-5	1	15.9	10.8	5.11	12.9	15.6	-2.72
Hugo Gonz�lez	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-5	1	15.1	15.3	-0.17	13.6	12.4	1.23
Ron Harper Jr.	98	97	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	15.0	20.0	-5.00	13.4	9.5	3.94
Baylor Scheierman	91	93	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	15.3	13.5	1.83	13.4	12.1	1.26
Derrick White	89	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	1	-11	15.5	12.6	2.91	13.4	12.5	0.86
Sam Hauser	85	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.18	-11	2	-13	15.6	12.8	2.78	13.4	12.7	0.69

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	84	85	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-1	11	13.4	12.6	0.84	15.6	12.8	2.78
De'Aaron Fox	101	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	13.3	0.0	13.29	15.1	0.0	15.15
Devin Vassell	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	0	9	13.4	12.3	1.08	15.5	12.6	2.91
Carter Bryant	96	95	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	4	1	13.1	16.2	-3.06	15.5	9.3	6.18
Dylan Harper	89	86	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	4	1	13.2	14.1	-0.90	15.4	13.6	1.82
Luke Kornet	65	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	1	7	13.0	13.7	-0.68	16.0	13.8	2.12
Stephon Castle	84	85	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	4	1	13.3	13.2	0.13	15.6	13.0	2.55
Keldon Johnson	83	82	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	10	-11	13.7	11.3	2.45	15.4	13.9	1.54
Mason Plumlee	24	24	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	7	-5	15.5	12.6	2.85	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Jordan McLaughlin	23	22	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	7	-5	15.1	12.7	2.39	15.2	15.1	0.10
Julian Champagnie	80	80	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	12.7	15.4	-2.64	15.7	13.0	2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.63,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 94, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.76,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
CHA 92, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.4%
DEN 75, MIL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%