NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	7.6 [297]		MVP	Isaiah Joe (OKC): +13.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Comeback	1.0 [899]		LVP	Jaylin Williams (OKC): -19.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gui Santos	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.01	19	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.05
Draymond Green	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	10	80%	0.16	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Malevy Leons	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LJ Cryer	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Spencer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	6	75%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nate Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Payton II	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	39%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Kristaps Porzi??is	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	10	35%	-0.07	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Brandin Podziemski	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.12	0.00	17	47%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.05	0.03	12	60%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	9	68%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.02,-0.05,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.02	15	60%	0.21	4	-0.13	15	93%	0.07
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Barnhizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cason Wallace	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	10	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	7	64%	0.11	6	-0.30	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	0.3	31.6	0.2	41.1	0.0	30.7	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +36.7%

OKC +21.3%

OKC +3.1%

GSW -14.1%

OKC +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.5	14.2	102.1	110.6	113.4
season	14.7	13.8		113.0	116.3
opponent	14.6	13.7		105.4	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.7	14.4	17.4	16.5	15.9
OKC	10.7	16.3	16.1	15.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malevy Leons	39	39	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-11	15	16.1	15.8	0.33	13.4	15.3	-1.94
Nate Williams	55	54	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-8	9	16.4	15.2	1.26	13.6	15.7	-2.10
LJ Cryer	66	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	1	-9	16.9	13.7	3.14	15.3	12.8	2.48
Gary Payton II	74	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-6	5	16.5	13.8	2.69	15.2	12.1	3.01
Kristaps Porzi??is	89	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-2	-3	15.9	16.7	-0.81	14.9	8.7	6.25
Pat Spencer	82	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.17	-9	2	-11	16.1	14.9	1.14	14.7	13.7	1.02
Al Horford	88	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	16.5	8.7	7.76	14.5	15.2	-0.69
Brandin Podziemski	91	91	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	1	-9	15.9	15.0	0.95	14.6	10.7	3.98
Draymond Green	85	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.6	18.3	-2.68	14.5	15.0	-0.54
Gui Santos	95	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.9	0.0	15.91	14.5	0.0	14.52

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cason Wallace	85	85	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	0	7	15.1	9.3	5.74	15.8	16.4	-0.55
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	94	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.5	0.0	14.52	15.9	0.0	15.91
Luguentz Dort	86	87	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	0	7	15.1	8.2	6.85	15.9	15.6	0.31
Isaiah Joe	75	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	15.4	11.0	4.41	16.4	13.9	2.45
Jaylin Williams	77	79	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	14.9	12.8	2.14	15.5	17.7	-2.14
Aaron Wiggins	76	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	-1	9	14.5	14.7	-0.18	16.6	12.8	3.86
Kenrich Williams	82	83	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	6	-5	14.5	14.4	0.12	16.6	11.0	5.61
Brooks Barnhizer	58	58	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	3	1	14.0	15.4	-1.36	16.8	14.5	2.28
Jared McCain	62	64	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	7	-7	14.3	15.0	-0.77	16.3	15.1	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.99,1	93.2%
SAS 99, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.81,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	93.0%
SAC 93, OKC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.95,1	92.5%