NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	113		Excitement	6.4 [456]		MVP	Julian Strawther (DEN): +22.6%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.0 [742]		LVP	Marcus Smart (LAL): -11.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaxson Hayes	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.07	0.01	10	76%	0.21	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Rui Hachimura	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.03	9	89%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	11	67%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Austin Reaves	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Luke Kennard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Don?i?	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.07	-0.03	24	52%	0.03	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Jake LaRavia	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	9	50%	-0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.12	-0.01	10	72%	0.27	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	7	74%	0.17	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.15	-0.00	0.03	17	68%	0.17	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Christian Braun	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.02	12	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	15	74%	0.34	9	-0.25	8	100%	0.03
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.3	26.3	0.0	29.3	0.0	36.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.1%

DEN +22.0%

DEN +19.9%

LAL -22.3%

DEN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.0	14.2	113.0	122.4	113.4
season	14.5	14.6		115.9	119.0
opponent	14.1	14.1		114.9	114.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.3	13.4	15.4	13.1	14.0
DEN	13.7	14.9	15.3	16.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	10	9	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.18	-13	6	-19	14.8	13.9	0.87	12.8	15.2	-2.46
Jarred Vanderbilt	30	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.14	-15	8	-23	14.3	13.9	0.45	14.1	15.4	-1.29
Marcus Smart	77	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-2	-3	13.9	14.5	-0.65	15.3	14.2	1.12
Austin Reaves	92	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	13.9	15.0	-1.07	15.2	13.2	1.92
LeBron James	98	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-2	-3	14.2	7.0	7.16	15.5	1.0	14.45
Luka Don?i?	98	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	0	-7	14.0	16.5	-2.53	15.1	13.3	1.73
Luke Kennard	98	96	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	-2	-3	14.2	7.0	7.16	15.3	0.5	14.81
Rui Hachimura	95	92	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.34	-7	0	-7	14.1	13.4	0.65	15.5	7.5	8.00
Jaxson Hayes	85	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	2	-11	13.9	14.7	-0.84	15.8	11.1	4.78
Jake LaRavia	79	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.16	-15	8	-23	14.2	13.3	0.93	15.1	14.8	0.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	75	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-4	15	15.6	13.1	2.46	14.2	13.4	0.82
Christian Braun	97	99	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-2	11	15.0	12.0	3.04	14.0	20.0	-6.04
Jamal Murray	78	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-2	11	15.2	14.3	0.83	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Bruce Brown	96	99	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	0	7	15.1	10.5	4.60	14.1	9.0	5.07
Nikola Joki?	93	96	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	2	3	15.1	14.2	0.85	14.0	15.0	-1.02
Jonas Valan?i?nas	42	42	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	-2	11	14.5	15.4	-0.98	14.3	13.8	0.42
Tyus Jones	47	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	-3	13	14.4	15.6	-1.16	14.6	13.4	1.20
Tim Hardaway Jr.	83	86	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	3	1	15.4	12.9	2.53	14.2	12.8	1.44
Julian Strawther	72	77	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	5	-3	15.4	14.0	1.38	13.9	14.3	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 89, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.73,1	92.5%
PHX 93, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.64,0.57,0.73,1	92.2%
ORL 81, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.91,1	91.9%