NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	12.9 [12]		MVP	Brandin Podziemski (GSW): +50.0%
Houston Rockets	113		Comeback	3.1 [184]		LVP	Gui Santos (GSW): -37.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandin Podziemski	0.50	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.43,0.5,0.5	0.15	0.34	-0.01	18	68%	0.52	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Al Horford	0.35	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.35	0.05	0.31	0.01	15	57%	0.40	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
LJ Cryer	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	9	67%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.27,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12	0.03	0.11	0.02	22	50%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Draymond Green	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	77%	0.14	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.02
Pat Spencer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malevy Leons	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	-0.00	2	37%	-0.01	4	-0.23	4	75%	-0.02
Gui Santos	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.37	-0.10	-0.27	0.00	12	50%	-0.01	7	-0.36	4	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.19	0.13	-0.02	19	79%	0.41	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.12	0.02	16	61%	0.32	3	-0.16	6	67%	-0.06
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	15	56%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.4,0,0.15,0.03,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.12	0.14	-0.01	20	41%	0.21	5	-0.18	1	100%	0.03
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.21	-0.14	-0.01	8	15%	-0.22	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.1	0.6	31.3	14.6	27.6	0.7	39.6	0.6	17.0	154.2
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	2.2	16.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +43.9%

HOU -4.6%

GSW +29.2%

HOU -31.0%

GSW +12.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	15.4	14.2	113.9	113.0	113.4
season	14.7	15.4		112.7	115.1
opponent	14.0	13.7		110.9	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	15.4	15.9	15.1	19.6	14.2	16.2
HOU	15.8	15.4	13.7	17.2	15.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	88	86	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.51	9	-7	16	15.8	18.3	-2.47	16.0	12.0	4.01
Brandin Podziemski	87	86	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	16.4	14.7	1.68	16.4	9.4	7.08
De'Anthony Melton	87	85	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.51	2	0	2	16.4	14.4	2.09	16.1	11.5	4.61
Al Horford	92	91	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-1	4	16.1	16.9	-0.80	15.9	10.8	5.13
Quinten Post	90	90	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	-4	10	16.5	13.0	3.54	16.3	8.1	8.17
Gui Santos	96	94	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.48	-1	3	-4	16.1	17.4	-1.31	15.7	12.2	3.49
LJ Cryer	81	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	-3	8	16.6	14.5	2.01	16.5	11.2	5.25
Nate Williams	67	66	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	1	0	16.3	15.9	0.33	16.0	14.3	1.71
Pat Spencer	81	80	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	3	-4	16.0	16.7	-0.74	15.6	14.9	0.63
Malevy Leons	48	48	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	11	-20	16.9	15.5	1.33	16.1	14.8	1.34

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	54	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	3	-8	14.8	16.2	-1.34	15.7	16.7	-0.94
Tari Eason	88	91	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-5	8	16.1	10.3	5.81	16.4	13.6	2.84
Jabari Smith Jr.	94	96	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.48	1	-3	4	15.7	12.2	3.49	16.1	17.4	-1.31
Amen Thompson	99	100	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	0	-2	15.6	0.0	15.61	16.3	4.0	12.28
Reed Sheppard	98	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.45	-2	0	-2	15.8	0.0	15.77	16.1	22.0	-5.90
Kevin Durant	99	100	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.46	-2	0	-2	15.6	0.0	15.61	16.1	22.0	-5.90
Josh Okogie	91	92	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.43	-5	3	-8	15.9	11.1	4.77	16.7	10.7	6.03
Alperen Sengun	82	83	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.39	-13	11	-24	16.5	10.7	5.83	16.0	17.1	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.55,0.32,0.58,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.15,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 93, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.53,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.55,0.15,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.05,0	89.9%
ORL 88, CHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.74,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.23,0.42,0	89.4%
DET 88, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.17,0.09,0	89.4%