NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	10.7 [40]		MVP	Alex Caruso (OKC): +23.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	127		Comeback	7.8 [226]		LVP	Cason Wallace (OKC): -25.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.05	0.07	26	63%	0.18	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.03
Christian Braun	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.01	18	56%	0.19	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.01	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.11,0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	25	42%	0.06	3	-0.18	5	60%	-0.00
Cameron Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.12	-0.02	7	44%	-0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.4,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.21	-0.00	11	55%	0.26	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.11	-0.00	8	87%	0.27	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	6	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	8	68%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	7	75%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.02	6	64%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	0.06	-0.28	0.02	29	51%	-0.19	1	-0.06	13	92%	0.09
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.13	0.03	10	42%	-0.13	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	31.6	0.2	26.7	13.4	29.9	0.4	42.0	0.0	26.6	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	2.2	16.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +26.1%

DEN -3.7%

OKC +12.6%

OKC +19.7%

DEN -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.4	12.6	14.2	103.4	106.7	113.4
season	14.6	13.8		119.1	116.5
opponent	14.6	14.1		105.4	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	11.9	18.3	14.6	14.8	11.9	14.4
OKC	12.8	13.0	12.5	14.2	8.7	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Jones	33	33	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-13	20	13.5	14.7	-1.16	11.8	12.9	-1.08
Bruce Brown	102	103	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-6	6	14.7	12.2	2.47	13.2	8.7	4.42
Julian Strawther	47	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.13	-8	2	-10	15.2	13.8	1.37	12.6	12.5	0.08
Jamal Murray	112	115	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-4	2	14.3	14.4	-0.05	12.6	10.5	2.14
Nikola Joki?	117	119	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.4	0.0	14.35	12.6	0.0	12.57
Christian Braun	115	117	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	1	-8	14.4	11.0	3.41	12.6	10.5	2.11
Jonas Valan?i?nas	19	17	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.04	-21	15	-36	18.7	13.5	5.24	10.9	12.9	-1.97
Tim Hardaway Jr.	116	118	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.43	-6	0	-6	14.3	17.0	-2.67	12.6	10.0	2.59
Cameron Johnson	104	105	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	5	-16	14.0	17.5	-3.50	12.1	15.8	-3.64

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	117	115	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-3	12	12.5	18.0	-5.52	14.4	11.0	3.41
Jaylin Williams	96	97	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-7	20	11.8	15.7	-3.82	14.0	16.1	-2.17
Chet Holmgren	110	107	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-7	20	12.6	12.6	0.02	14.7	10.6	4.10
Alex Caruso	116	114	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-3	12	12.5	15.0	-2.49	14.4	13.7	0.70
Cason Wallace	107	104	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	1	4	12.5	12.8	-0.29	14.4	13.6	0.83
Isaiah Hartenstein	79	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	-9	24	13.2	11.3	1.92	15.5	12.0	3.56
Jared McCain	63	61	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.23	12	-6	18	13.0	12.1	0.81	15.7	12.9	2.80
Luguentz Dort	78	79	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	5	-4	12.6	12.5	0.13	14.7	13.5	1.22
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	104	103	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	13.1	8.7	4.47	14.7	11.9	2.83
Aaron Wiggins	49	49	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.10	-15	21	-36	12.8	12.4	0.35	12.7	15.5	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.36,0.54,0.27,0.38,0.15,0.31,0.84,0.5,0.69,0.63,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.07,0.15,0.24,0.72,0.5,0.61,0.36,0.68,0.73,1	88.2%
NJN 96, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.71,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.63,0.9,0.97,1	86.9%
PHX 98, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.25,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.28,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.29,0.37,0.24,0.73,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.94,1,1	86.8%