NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	123		Excitement	6.1 [387]		MVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): +9.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	111		Comeback	1.5 [361]		LVP	Jeremiah Fears (NOP): -8.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	19	49%	0.13	3	-0.05	17	76%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	14	52%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.02
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Myron Gardner	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	22	48%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Dru Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	55%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Nikola Jovi?	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	4	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	41%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.03	0.02	15	53%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	19	62%	0.19	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	15	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Derik Queen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Karlo Matkovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.06	15	44%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	6	58%	0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	18	36%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	0.8	29.0	0.0	29.1	0.0	34.4	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -4.8%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +25.1%

MIA +18.0%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	13.8	13.6	14.2	118.3	104.7	113.5
season	12.8	14.2		113.3	111.3
opponent	14.1	14.5		117.2	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	13.0	15.6	14.0	13.8
NOP	14.3	13.6	13.8	12.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	88	88	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.16	13	-1	14	14.0	12.9	1.04	13.6	13.5	0.14
Simone Fontecchio	86	90	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.01	18	-6	24	14.0	12.8	1.19	13.5	14.5	-1.04
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	104	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	13.8	0.0	13.82	13.6	0.0	13.61
Bam Adebayo	104	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	13.8	0.0	13.82	13.6	0.0	13.61
Dru Smith	79	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	4	4	14.1	12.9	1.23	13.8	13.1	0.74
Kel'el Ware	69	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	-2	16	14.2	13.1	1.02	13.8	13.2	0.64
Davion Mitchell	85	87	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-2	16	14.0	12.8	1.26	13.5	14.3	-0.86
Myron Gardner	57	59	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	3	6	14.9	12.4	2.50	13.9	13.2	0.76
Nikola Jovi?	59	58	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	13	-14	13.6	14.2	-0.60	13.7	13.6	0.09

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Murphy III	73	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.03	-12	0	-12	14.0	12.8	1.20	14.1	13.2	0.93
Karlo Matkovi?	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	13.8	13.2	0.53	14.9	11.1	3.76
Derik Queen	86	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.00	-14	2	-16	13.4	14.7	-1.34	14.0	13.2	0.70
Jeremiah Fears	97	96	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-4	-4	13.7	12.9	0.79	14.2	9.6	4.54
Bryce McGowens	78	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	2	-16	14.1	12.4	1.66	14.2	12.9	1.30
Kevon Looney	61	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.10	-12	0	-12	14.0	13.0	1.03	13.9	13.7	0.20
Saddiq Bey	102	100	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	13.6	14.0	-0.40	13.9	12.0	1.89
Zion Williamson	106	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	13.6	0.0	13.61	13.8	0.0	13.82
Herbert Jones	95	91	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.04	-18	6	-24	13.5	14.5	-0.94	13.9	13.2	0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 104, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.23,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MIL 100, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
GSW 105, DET 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.02,0	94.0%