NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	133		Excitement	6.2 [577]		MVP	Simone Fontecchio (MIA): +24.8%
Miami Heat	124		Comeback	3.7 [247]		LVP	Kasparas Jaku?ionis (MIA): -11.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.08	0.01	16	72%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.04	0.01	19	67%	0.21	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Tristan da Silva	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	9	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.02	0.05	23	55%	0.07	1	-0.01	10	80%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	15	47%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jase Richardson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Noah Penda	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.22	0.04	0.01	11	88%	0.25	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	5	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.04	0.03	14	66%	0.15	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	11	64%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	65%	0.08	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.05	17	58%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	0.8	28.7	14.6	24.2	0.3	38.1	134.1
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.4%

MIA -10.6%

ORL +0.7%

ORL +32.4%

ORL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	11.7	14.2	123.1	115.9	113.5
season	14.1	12.9		112.3	114.9
opponent	14.5	14.2		112.7	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.6	15.8	15.2	16.4	15.0
MIA	13.9	9.9	11.9	11.3	11.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tristan da Silva	81	79	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.13	20	-11	31	14.9	15.3	-0.43	12.6	9.4	3.13
Paolo Banchero	104	104	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-4	17	15.0	14.7	0.27	11.7	12.3	-0.61
Jonathan Isaac	107	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	15.1	2.0	13.13	11.8	7.0	4.78
Anthony Black	101	100	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	4	1	15.3	10.3	5.05	11.5	14.7	-3.18
Wendell Carter Jr.	61	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.17	6	3	3	15.9	13.9	1.98	11.6	11.9	-0.31
Tyus Jones	74	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	3	3	15.4	14.2	1.17	11.9	11.4	0.44
Desmond Bane	98	97	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	11	-13	15.1	14.4	0.67	11.5	13.7	-2.16
Jalen Suggs	94	93	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	12	-15	15.0	15.2	-0.24	11.4	13.8	-2.36
Noah Penda	41	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	14.6	15.3	-0.64	12.0	11.6	0.42
Jase Richardson	19	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	17	-25	16.2	14.8	1.39	9.4	12.2	-2.88
Moritz Wagner	21	21	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	21	-33	16.0	14.8	1.23	9.7	12.2	-2.58

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	87	87	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.21	8	-17	25	11.2	13.9	-2.72	15.7	12.1	3.62
Kel'el Ware	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-6	3	10.7	12.4	-1.66	16.0	14.4	1.68
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	53	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	-3	-3	11.4	12.1	-0.75	15.6	14.5	1.09
Norman Powell	85	86	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-9	9	11.4	12.9	-1.47	15.7	12.1	3.61
Andrew Wiggins	90	92	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-7	5	11.5	12.8	-1.29	15.5	12.1	3.46
Simone Fontecchio	106	106	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	11.8	7.0	4.78	15.2	3.0	12.24
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	106	106	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	11.8	7.0	4.78	15.2	3.0	12.24
Bam Adebayo	107	108	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	11.7	0.0	11.74	15.0	0.0	15.01
Dru Smith	83	83	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.07	-21	12	-33	12.3	9.8	2.51	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Nikola Jovi?	74	75	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.11	-20	11	-31	12.6	9.7	2.91	15.0	15.0	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.23,0.08,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 120, CLE 112	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%
LAL 92, DET 77	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.44,0.31,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%
DET 90, ATL 78	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%