NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	117		Excitement	6.8 [281]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +34.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	114		Comeback	1.1 [66]		LVP	Johnny Furphy (IND): -10.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarace Walker	0.34	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.34	0.11	0.21	-0.02	15	63%	0.37	2	-0.03	11	64%	0.03
Andrew Nembhard	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.04	0.05	16	75%	0.20	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Pascal Siakam	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13	0.03	0.05	-0.05	20	49%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Micah Potter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	0.00	9	56%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.01	14	61%	0.17	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jay Huff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Johnny Furphy	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	9	22%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.35	0.35	0.30	0.13	0.08	28	69%	0.36	1	-0.02	12	100%	0.09
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	-0.00	0.03	14	69%	0.13	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	8	63%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Barnhizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Branden Carlson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.02	-0.02	9	11%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	0.0	26.4	0.0	26.2	0.0	46.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +44.3%

OKC -15.6%

IND +27.1%

OKC -8.4%

IND +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	OKC	NBA	IND	OKC	NBA
this game	15.0	13.5	14.2	117.0	111.8	113.6
season	13.9	13.6		107.1	118.2
opponent	14.6	14.1		104.5	115.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.4	15.7	15.9	15.4	15.0
OKC	12.7	13.1	14.7	13.5	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarace Walker	84	87	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-8	19	14.6	17.2	-2.56	13.7	11.7	2.01
Andrew Nembhard	97	99	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.39	5	-2	7	15.1	13.0	2.10	13.6	9.0	4.59
Aaron Nesmith	89	92	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	-3	9	15.2	13.6	1.58	13.9	9.4	4.49
Pascal Siakam	100	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	15.0	0.0	15.04	13.5	0.0	13.45
Micah Potter	98	99	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	2	-1	15.3	2.5	12.80	13.8	2.0	11.80
Johnny Furphy	92	92	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.43	-3	6	-9	15.6	8.7	6.84	13.9	8.9	5.05
T.J. McConnell	79	81	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	-2	7	14.9	15.4	-0.43	13.7	12.7	0.99
Ben Sheppard	65	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	-2	7	14.9	15.2	-0.29	13.5	13.3	0.22
Isaiah Jackson	15	16	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	0	3	15.1	15.0	0.11	15.6	13.1	2.50
Jay Huff	14	14	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	0	3	15.6	15.0	0.62	14.2	13.3	0.88

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Barnhizer	11	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	3	-9	16.4	13.1	3.26	15.7	15.0	0.71
Branden Carlson	26	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	9	-21	15.8	12.6	3.21	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Kenrich Williams	100	98	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-2	1	13.7	3.0	10.66	15.3	0.5	14.84
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	95	94	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-1	-1	13.7	10.7	2.94	15.1	13.7	1.46
Ousmane Dieng	70	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.03	-14	11	-25	14.0	12.2	1.84	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Chet Holmgren	98	97	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-3	3	13.7	7.0	6.71	15.2	10.0	5.20
Isaiah Joe	101	99	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	0	-3	13.6	0.0	13.58	15.1	5.0	10.14
Jaylin Williams	78	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	4	-11	14.1	11.2	2.93	15.0	15.1	-0.06
Cason Wallace	92	90	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	5	-13	13.9	9.4	4.49	15.1	14.9	0.16
Luguentz Dort	84	83	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.25	-13	10	-23	14.0	10.9	3.04	15.1	14.9	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.31,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.27,0.39,0.32,0.23,0.16,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.01,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 127, CLE 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	92.8%
UTA 88, MIL 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0	92.7%
PHI 106, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	92.6%