NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	120		Excitement	10.4 [38]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +38.4%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	9.1 [48]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -11.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.38	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.38	0.27	0.14	0.02	19	76%	0.53	2	-0.14	13	100%	0.12
Aaron Wiggins	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.15	-0.00	10	90%	0.32	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Jalen Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	12	52%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.04
Kenrich Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ajay Mitchell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,0.04,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.15	5	-0.20	2	100%	0.05
Alex Caruso	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Luguentz Dort	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.32	0.32	0.02	0.30	-0.00	15	47%	0.32	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.06,0.28,0.21,0.14,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.13	0.02	22	60%	0.28	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.07
Myron Gardner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.02	0.00	4	137%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.01	15	47%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	7	76%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.03	-0.03	15	51%	0.04	1	0.00	7	57%	-0.04
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	11	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	7	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.2	29.3	15.2	31.9	1.4	43.7	148.4
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -39.1%

OKC -9.1%

MIA +41.6%

MIA +53.3%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.1	15.1	14.2	116.5	120.8	113.6
season	13.6	12.7		118.2	113.3
opponent	14.5	14.6		111.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.2	14.2	13.9	11.2	13.1
MIA	15.5	14.6	13.3	17.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylin Williams	81	79	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.15	4	-6	10	13.3	12.6	0.67	15.3	14.4	0.89
Kenrich Williams	25	25	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-9	16	13.2	13.1	0.06	15.5	15.0	0.55
Jalen Williams	29	29	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-6	10	14.3	12.6	1.66	15.6	14.9	0.67
Isaiah Joe	64	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.11	-10	8	-18	13.5	12.6	0.89	15.5	14.6	0.89
Luguentz Dort	58	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	10	-22	14.6	11.3	3.29	15.3	14.9	0.43
Ajay Mitchell	103	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	13.1	0.0	13.12	15.1	0.0	15.11
Alex Caruso	103	101	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	13.1	0.0	13.12	15.1	0.0	15.11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	103	101	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	13.1	0.0	13.12	15.1	0.0	15.11
Aaron Wiggins	77	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.27	-9	7	-16	13.1	13.1	0.00	15.0	15.5	-0.47
Cason Wallace	93	92	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	5	-12	13.3	11.1	2.23	15.2	13.7	1.58
Chet Holmgren	70	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.47	-5	3	-8	13.3	12.7	0.57	15.5	14.3	1.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	88	89	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.47	3	-1	4	15.3	14.1	1.18	13.1	13.4	-0.28
Pelle Larsson	68	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.54	0	2	-2	15.7	13.9	1.74	12.9	13.5	-0.53
Andrew Wiggins	82	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.49	1	1	0	15.3	14.3	1.04	13.3	12.4	0.89
Norman Powell	101	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	15.1	0.0	15.11	13.1	0.0	13.12
Simone Fontecchio	86	90	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	1	0	15.7	11.7	4.04	13.2	12.3	0.93
Dru Smith	86	88	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.40	-2	4	-6	15.4	13.5	1.93	13.0	14.1	-1.11
Myron Gardner	56	56	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	-4	10	14.3	16.1	-1.73	13.6	12.5	1.11
Nikola Jovi?	64	64	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	6	-10	14.9	15.4	-0.51	13.2	13.1	0.10
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	74	75	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.19	-1	3	-4	15.1	15.0	0.15	13.6	11.9	1.63
Kel'el Ware	72	72	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.03	-10	12	-22	15.4	14.4	1.02	13.1	13.1	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.54,0.33,0.16,1	91.1%
PHI 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.73,0.54,0.53,0.21,0.22,0.42,1	90.3%
OKC 89, NOH 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.27,1	90.2%