NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	112		Excitement	4.2 [454]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAC): +22.8%
Sacramento Kings	124		Comeback	1.9 [92]		LVP	Marcus Smart (LAL): -7.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Don?i?	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.21	-0.02	0.08	25	72%	0.20	4	-0.09	8	100%	0.03
Jaxson Hayes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Gabe Vincent	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	6	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bronny James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	0.00	0.08	2	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalton Knecht	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	7	59%	0.03	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03
LeBron James	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	17	55%	0.03	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Jarred Vanderbilt	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.26	0.03	0.06	19	74%	0.23	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.20	0.03	0.02	15	84%	0.26	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.01	-0.02	11	73%	0.16	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxime Raynaud	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	8	69%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	16	61%	0.10	5	-0.09	4	50%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	7	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Cardwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nique Clifford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.3	31.9	0.0	28.2	0.0	30.7	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.5	2.3	32.7	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +58.0%

SAC +3.4%

LAL -4.6%

LAL -6.5%

LAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAC	NBA	LAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	15.4	14.2	117.9	129.2	113.6
season	14.6	14.2		114.9	107.8
opponent	14.2	14.0		118.7	116.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.1	14.4	15.3	15.1	14.7
SAC	14.0	15.0	15.3	17.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Smith Jr.	19	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-8	4	16.2	14.4	1.80	17.6	14.9	2.65
Maxi Kleber	22	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-12	12	15.1	14.6	0.55	17.6	14.8	2.83
Bronny James	22	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-12	12	15.1	14.6	0.55	17.6	14.8	2.83
Deandre Ayton	67	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	0	-12	14.4	15.5	-1.16	15.7	14.8	0.88
Luka Don?i?	87	87	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	14.7	15.1	-0.45	15.5	14.8	0.69
Jake LaRavia	87	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-1	-10	14.7	15.1	-0.45	15.4	15.2	0.23
Marcus Smart	70	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	4	-20	14.4	15.5	-1.09	15.9	14.1	1.79
Dalton Knecht	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-1	-10	15.1	13.3	1.77	15.7	14.3	1.43
Jaxson Hayes	83	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	0	-12	15.2	11.5	3.68	15.2	16.6	-1.40
LeBron James	92	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	4	-20	14.9	8.7	6.25	15.3	17.7	-2.45
Jarred Vanderbilt	92	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	4	-20	14.9	8.7	6.25	15.3	17.7	-2.45
Gabe Vincent	75	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	4	-20	15.1	13.3	1.73	14.9	17.2	-2.28

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Precious Achiuwa	95	94	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	0	12	15.5	4.0	11.53	14.7	15.0	-0.29
Malik Monk	96	94	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	0	12	15.4	0.0	15.41	14.7	15.0	-0.29
Russell Westbrook	84	84	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	2	8	15.7	13.1	2.65	14.4	17.2	-2.79
Zach LaVine	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	5	2	15.6	15.0	0.61	15.2	13.2	2.00
Dylan Cardwell	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	5	2	15.9	14.5	1.36	15.1	14.0	1.10
DeMar DeRozan	89	88	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.20	4	8	-4	15.7	11.4	4.29	14.5	18.0	-3.55
Keon Ellis	49	51	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	4	4	15.7	15.1	0.63	15.0	14.3	0.70
Maxime Raynaud	89	87	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	10	-8	15.6	13.6	1.98	14.2	20.1	-5.91
Nique Clifford	56	58	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	8	-4	15.1	15.8	-0.72	15.0	14.2	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.85,0.89,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 97, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	95.7%
WAS 78, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
LAL 85, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%