NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	8.9 [132]		MVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): +24.1%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	5.2 [157]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -31.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.24	0.10	0.14	-0.00	17	55%	0.24	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Keldon Johnson	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.20	0.01	13	58%	0.30	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	83%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Julian Champagnie	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	16	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Lindy Waters III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Harper	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	7	36%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	8	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stephon Castle	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	16	24%	-0.17	2	-0.08	5	40%	-0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baylor Scheierman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.13	0.00	5	100%	0.24	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.03	-0.03	26	54%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Luka Garza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	6	92%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.06	-0.03	8	31%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Hugo Gonz�lez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Walsh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.31	-0.31	-0.05	-0.25	0.01	28	48%	-0.05	5	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.3	27.5	13.6	25.5	0.1	33.3	125.8
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -3.4%

SAS +16.3%

SAS +23.1%

SAS +14.4%

BOS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	14.1	15.6	14.2	104.2	96.9	113.6
season	13.9	15.2		115.7	120.5
opponent	14.4	14.4		113.6	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	15.7	12.3	13.2	14.1
BOS	14.0	17.0	15.3	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	74	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-1	7	14.3	13.1	1.25	16.1	13.9	2.20
Victor Wembanyama	81	81	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-1	7	14.7	10.5	4.17	15.6	15.4	0.21
Julian Champagnie	85	85	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	0	5	14.3	11.9	2.42	15.7	14.6	1.11
Keldon Johnson	96	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.1	0.0	14.05	15.6	0.0	15.58
De'Aaron Fox	96	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.1	0.0	14.05	15.6	0.0	15.58
Lindy Waters III	14	13	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	5	-5	18.2	13.3	4.87	17.3	15.3	1.99
Stephon Castle	82	84	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	5	-5	14.0	14.1	-0.02	15.5	15.9	-0.32
Jeremy Sochan	45	45	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	12	-19	15.5	12.7	2.79	15.4	15.8	-0.38
Harrison Barnes	75	75	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	6	-7	14.1	13.8	0.37	16.2	13.4	2.81
Kelly Olynyk	14	14	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	8	-11	13.7	14.1	-0.40	16.4	15.4	0.99
Dylan Harper	71	71	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.14	-3	8	-11	14.5	12.9	1.53	15.7	15.3	0.34

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hugo Gonz�lez	30	32	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-12	19	15.6	15.6	0.07	16.6	12.8	3.86
Jordan Walsh	49	49	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-4	3	14.8	16.3	-1.53	15.1	12.9	2.19
Neemias Queta	95	95	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-5	5	15.7	12.7	3.01	14.2	0.0	14.20
Anfernee Simons	83	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	15.3	17.2	-1.91	14.3	12.4	1.90
Luka Garza	85	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-4	3	15.8	14.0	1.82	14.5	9.9	4.63
Jaylen Brown	98	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.6	0.0	15.58	14.1	0.0	14.05
Derrick White	98	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.6	0.0	15.58	14.1	0.0	14.05
Payton Pritchard	83	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.41	-3	-2	-1	15.9	13.6	2.34	14.2	12.9	1.31
Baylor Scheierman	71	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	4	-13	16.3	13.6	2.69	13.8	14.8	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.61,0.64,0.34,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.34,0.08,0	91.5%
SAC 101, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.48,0.15,0.27,0	91.5%
NYK 95, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.56,0.7,0.85,0.67,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.15,0	91.4%