NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	7.0 [402]		MVP	Pelle Larsson (MIA): +15.3%
Chicago Bulls	113		Comeback	1.2 [696]		LVP	Patrick Williams (CHI): -11.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pelle Larsson	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.00	8	65%	0.19	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	13	68%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.13	-0.00	0.12	-0.01	16	55%	0.20	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.04
Kel'el Ware	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jovi?	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	9	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	19	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	9	50%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matas Buzelis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	15	48%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.01	16	61%	0.15	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.06
Julian Phillips	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dalen Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Smith	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Isaac Okoro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	11	44%	0.04	3	-0.11	10	80%	0.04
Nikola Vu?evi?	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	18	39%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	29.2	14.3	28.3	1.3	40.1	139.8
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.0%

CHI -7.1%

CHI -1.3%

MIA +12.5%

MIA +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	12.7	14.0	14.2	108.4	104.6	113.7
season	12.9	13.6		114.3	111.5
opponent	14.2	14.5		117.1	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.8	12.1	13.5	14.4	12.7
CHI	14.8	16.0	13.6	11.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	85	86	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-5	13	12.4	13.8	-1.34	14.6	11.6	3.00
Andrew Wiggins	98	98	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	0	3	12.4	15.8	-3.35	14.2	12.6	1.57
Bam Adebayo	107	108	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	12.7	0.0	12.71	14.0	0.0	14.03
Norman Powell	89	90	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	12.7	12.8	-0.08	14.5	11.4	3.10
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	102	102	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	-1	5	12.7	12.8	-0.09	13.9	16.5	-2.62
Nikola Jovi?	80	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-7	17	12.9	12.3	0.60	14.8	11.9	2.83
Dru Smith	95	97	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	2	-1	13.0	10.3	2.68	13.7	16.5	-2.80
Simone Fontecchio	74	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	-8	19	12.6	13.0	-0.46	15.1	11.5	3.57
Kel'el Ware	65	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	-4	11	11.6	14.5	-2.95	15.0	12.6	2.36
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	43	44	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	-4	11	11.4	13.6	-2.24	15.9	12.7	3.21

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Phillips	30	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-6	9	13.7	14.2	-0.50	13.7	12.3	1.34
Dalen Terry	43	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	0	-3	15.8	12.8	2.97	14.0	11.9	2.08
Jalen Smith	51	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	8	-19	15.7	12.6	3.11	11.3	13.9	-2.65
Patrick Williams	63	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	5	-13	15.4	12.1	3.29	12.5	13.0	-0.47
Isaac Okoro	78	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	0	-3	14.0	14.2	-0.24	12.6	12.9	-0.22
Matas Buzelis	84	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	14.4	12.7	1.64	12.5	13.4	-0.88
Kevin Huerter	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.0	0.0	14.03	12.7	0.0	12.71
Nikola Vu?evi?	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.0	0.0	14.03	12.7	0.0	12.71
Coby White	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.0	0.0	14.03	12.7	0.0	12.71
Ayo Dosunmu	88	89	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	5	-13	14.2	13.3	0.89	12.2	15.2	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 103, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SEA 104, WAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.15,0	94.2%
PHI 115, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.01,0	94.0%