NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	4.5 [882]		MVP	De'Anthony Melton (GSW): +21.9%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	1.6 [868]		LVP	Gui Santos (GSW): -6.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.00	0.06	22	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	29%	-0.06
Kyle Kuzma	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	0.00	0.06	7	87%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	13	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	8	68%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
AJ Green	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	69%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.08	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.02	-0.02	12	85%	0.22	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	21	66%	0.17	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.00
Moses Moody	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.03	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	15	54%	0.13	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.07
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Will Richard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.6	27.6	0.0	26.1	0.0	35.1	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +22.8%

GSW +9.0%

GSW +10.5%

GSW +9.1%

MIL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	15.6	14.2	117.7	121.2	113.5
season	14.7	14.7		110.9	112.8
opponent	13.8	14.3		113.6	117.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.9	14.5	12.0	13.8
GSW	14.6	15.8	14.9	17.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-5	3	13.4	15.5	-2.15	16.2	13.7	2.50
Kyle Kuzma	72	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	4	-15	14.0	13.2	0.79	15.4	16.5	-1.10
Gary Harris	60	63	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	14.5	12.7	1.79	14.9	16.9	-1.94
AJ Green	79	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	0	-7	13.3	16.4	-3.05	15.9	14.1	1.82
Kevin Porter Jr.	94	97	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	0	-7	13.6	24.0	-10.37	15.8	5.5	10.34
Bobby Portis	75	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	5	-17	13.9	13.8	0.04	16.1	14.0	2.09
Gary Trent Jr.	78	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.02	-17	10	-27	14.2	12.3	1.86	15.0	18.3	-3.26
Myles Turner	82	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	3	-13	13.5	15.6	-2.11	15.9	14.3	1.52
Ryan Rollins	91	92	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	5	-17	13.7	16.6	-2.91	15.8	13.6	2.21

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	88	86	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-4	15	16.0	12.5	3.57	13.6	16.3	-2.74
De'Anthony Melton	98	96	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-3	13	15.8	3.0	12.76	13.8	0.0	13.84
Jimmy Butler III	99	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.6	0.0	15.63	13.8	0.0	13.84
Draymond Green	78	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	0	7	16.1	13.8	2.31	13.4	15.5	-2.10
Moses Moody	78	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	0	7	16.1	13.8	2.31	13.4	15.5	-2.10
Brandin Podziemski	64	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-6	19	15.7	15.5	0.26	14.1	13.3	0.79
Gui Santos	68	65	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	0	7	16.1	14.6	1.52	13.8	13.9	-0.04
Al Horford	84	81	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	0	7	15.6	15.7	-0.13	14.0	13.2	0.76
Will Richard	69	66	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	16.2	14.2	2.05	13.8	13.9	-0.08
Quinten Post	66	64	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	-3	13	15.4	16.0	-0.56	14.6	12.4	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 87, DAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	95.4%
UTA 96, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,1	95.0%
PHX 100, LAL 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%