NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	7.0 [168]		MVP	Terrence Shannon Jr. (MIN): +27.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Comeback	9.1 [174]		LVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL): -15.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Rollins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	14	53%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jericho Sims	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.16	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	4	-0.06	8	75%	0.04
Gary Harris	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	11	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	17	47%	0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	8	24%	-0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	-0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.01	-0.12	0.03	17	60%	0.06	6	-0.21	6	83%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Shannon Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.09	0.17	-0.01	7	79%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	11	82%	0.20	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	7	56%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.02	6	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.01	24	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.03
Jaylen Clark	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	9	52%	0.00	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	50%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	0.0	33.2	0.0	23.4	0.0	31.6	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.7	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +41.9%

MIL -7.5%

MIL -13.1%

MIN +27.7%

MIN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.1	14.1	101.0	103.0	113.6
season	14.5	14.1		111.6	115.8
opponent	14.2	14.2		111.6	115.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	14.5	16.6	16.0	14.8
MIN	12.9	12.3	14.6	17.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	29	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-7	11	15.1	14.7	0.42	15.3	13.6	1.68
Gary Trent Jr.	67	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	1	-5	15.3	13.9	1.42	14.3	13.6	0.71
Jericho Sims	74	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	7	-17	15.4	13.3	2.03	14.1	14.1	-0.07
AJ Green	77	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	5	-13	15.2	13.5	1.72	14.0	14.5	-0.50
Ryan Rollins	82	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.9	1.15	14.7	11.2	3.57
Kevin Porter Jr.	93	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	0	-3	14.8	14.7	0.18	14.3	11.0	3.29
Kyle Kuzma	78	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	4	-11	15.5	12.5	2.94	14.4	13.0	1.36
Bobby Portis	88	87	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.37	-9	6	-15	15.2	12.0	3.19	14.5	11.4	3.11
Myles Turner	87	90	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.44	-8	5	-13	15.1	12.9	2.19	14.3	12.4	1.88

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	48	47	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-11	25	16.0	12.3	3.75	16.7	13.1	3.63
Donte DiVincenzo	78	78	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.44	7	-4	11	14.6	12.2	2.39	15.5	12.5	3.00
Rudy Gobert	94	93	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	0	3	14.3	11.0	3.29	14.8	14.7	0.18
Julius Randle	100	99	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	0	3	14.1	0.0	14.09	14.8	0.0	14.84
Anthony Edwards	100	99	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	0	3	14.1	0.0	14.09	14.8	0.0	14.84
Naz Reid	100	99	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	0	3	14.1	0.0	14.09	14.8	0.0	14.84
Bones Hyland	82	82	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	-4	11	14.1	14.0	0.11	14.9	14.5	0.37
Terrence Shannon Jr.	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	4	-5	14.4	13.9	0.47	14.3	15.2	-0.85
Jaylen Clark	50	50	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	-3	9	13.3	14.9	-1.58	15.5	14.2	1.34
Jaden McDaniels	20	19	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.11	-12	15	-27	14.0	14.1	-0.05	14.1	15.0	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.7,0.89,0.86,0.71,0.89,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, PHX 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.25,0.16,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.98,0.98,1	91.0%
DAL 115, PHX 117	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.18,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.61,0.93,0.91,0.92,1	90.8%
ORL 86, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	90.3%