NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	10.7 [41]		MVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): +33.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Comeback	5.6 [151]		LVP	Jalen Williams (OKC): -35.2%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chet Holmgren	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.11	-0.03	9	58%	0.21	0	0.00	6	100%	0.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.18,0.39,0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.00	26	58%	0.32	3	-0.14	8	100%	0.09
Ajay Mitchell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	10	58%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Isaiah Joe	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenrich Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.04
Luguentz Dort	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	12	42%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Williams	-0.35	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.35	-0.06	-0.28	0.01	16	47%	-0.22	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.34	0.34	0.05	0.29	0.00	20	57%	0.41	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	10	56%	0.18	1	-0.06	7	71%	0.01
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,0.09	0.09	-0.06	0.16	0.00	15	41%	0.18	2	-0.09	16	75%	0.04
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	81%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Terrence Shannon Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.09	-0.01	12	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	13	43%	0.01	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	0.03	2	-0.12	7	43%	-0.06
Rob Dillingham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	0.0	32.9	0.0	34.1	0.0	38.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +58.2%

MIN +1.3%

MIN +4.4%

OKC -8.6%

OKC -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	13.2	14.1	14.2	103.9	104.7	113.4
season	13.8	13.9		116.3	115.1
opponent	14.1	14.6		111.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.5	14.9	12.0	12.6	13.2
MIN	14.6	12.3	14.6	15.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	52	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-3	1	14.1	12.3	1.80	13.7	14.6	-0.94
Cason Wallace	84	85	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.00	-1	-4	3	13.2	13.6	-0.41	14.5	12.9	1.61
Kenrich Williams	37	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	0	-5	13.5	13.1	0.34	14.2	14.1	0.12
Chet Holmgren	83	87	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-8	11	13.2	13.2	-0.01	14.5	12.4	2.14
Alex Caruso	96	101	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	13.2	14.1	-0.97	14.4	10.3	4.03
Ajay Mitchell	93	98	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	13.3	12.7	0.60	14.4	11.7	2.70
Isaiah Hartenstein	92	97	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	2	-9	13.6	10.3	3.33	14.2	13.2	1.04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	103	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.2	0.0	13.24	14.1	0.0	14.14
Jalen Williams	92	95	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.38	-6	1	-7	13.2	13.3	-0.03	14.2	14.0	0.16
Luguentz Dort	85	88	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.34	-17	12	-29	13.7	11.0	2.72	14.0	14.8	-0.79

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julius Randle	97	92	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.38	10	-5	15	14.1	14.5	-0.40	13.8	8.6	5.16
Rob Dillingham	39	39	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-6	17	14.1	14.2	-0.06	13.9	12.8	1.14
Donte DiVincenzo	99	95	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-1	7	14.2	13.1	1.10	13.1	14.5	-1.36
Jaden McDaniels	107	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.1	0.0	14.14	13.2	0.0	13.24
Anthony Edwards	95	91	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	-1	7	14.2	13.7	0.53	13.5	11.6	1.88
Bones Hyland	80	76	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	5	-5	13.9	14.8	-0.85	13.4	12.8	0.58
Terrence Shannon Jr.	48	46	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	11	-17	14.5	13.9	0.58	12.4	13.9	-1.46
Rudy Gobert	98	94	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.31	1	4	-3	14.3	12.6	1.73	13.4	11.2	2.21
Naz Reid	98	93	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.32	-1	6	-7	14.3	12.7	1.61	13.2	14.0	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.28,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.77,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.43,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 102, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.48,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.41,1	91.8%
GSW 106, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.27,1	90.7%
BOS 101, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.54,0.33,0.16,1	90.2%