NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	8.6 [85]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +25.3%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	2.7 [220]		LVP	Desmond Bane (ORL): -28.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davion Mitchell	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.02	-0.04	8	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	10	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Simone Fontecchio	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	14	57%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,-0.04	0.09	-0.12	0.01	18	60%	0.05	3	-0.10	11	73%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.17	0.06	-0.23	0.00	15	67%	-0.01	5	-0.17	6	67%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.11	-0.00	22	64%	0.31	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.01	19	58%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jase Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.02
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.09	0.02	5	58%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	0.02	8	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29	-0.29	-0.20	-0.16	-0.08	16	16%	-0.28	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.6	29.4	13.3	31.1	0.3	32.7	134.7
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -6.1%

MIA -2.1%

ORL +20.9%

ORL +24.0%

ORL +13.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	12.6	15.4	14.1	102.9	102.9	113.7
season	12.4	13.9		113.4	114.6
opponent	14.2	14.7		110.5	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.4	11.8	12.1	13.4	12.6
ORL	14.7	13.5	13.6	21.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	73	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.39	8	-9	17	12.4	13.1	-0.66	16.3	13.2	3.10
Pelle Larsson	67	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	1	-3	12.3	13.2	-0.92	15.8	14.8	0.96
Andrew Wiggins	80	80	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.45	7	-8	15	12.3	13.8	-1.50	15.6	14.7	0.90
Dru Smith	69	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	7	-15	12.5	12.8	-0.24	15.0	16.3	-1.32
Kel'el Ware	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	10	-21	12.3	13.2	-0.95	13.5	19.3	-5.80
Simone Fontecchio	72	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	8	-17	12.7	12.4	0.33	15.4	15.7	-0.30
Norman Powell	90	91	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-1	1	12.6	12.7	-0.17	15.5	14.7	0.87
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	12.6	0.0	12.60	15.4	0.0	15.44
Bam Adebayo	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	12.6	0.0	12.60	15.4	0.0	15.44

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Bane	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.4	0.0	15.44	12.6	0.0	12.60
Paolo Banchero	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.4	0.0	15.44	12.6	0.0	12.60
Franz Wagner	93	92	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	0	1	15.4	15.9	-0.51	12.6	12.9	-0.33
Goga Bitadze	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-11	23	14.2	20.1	-5.91	12.2	14.1	-1.87
Tyus Jones	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-8	17	15.4	15.6	-0.16	12.8	12.1	0.66
Jalen Suggs	83	82	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.43	-4	5	-9	16.0	13.2	2.78	12.8	11.9	0.81
Wendell Carter Jr.	71	70	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.39	-3	4	-7	16.6	12.9	3.72	13.1	11.5	1.65
Anthony Black	95	94	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	-2	5	15.2	18.2	-3.05	12.4	15.5	-3.15
Tristan da Silva	77	77	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	1	-1	15.8	14.3	1.51	12.8	12.1	0.63
Jase Richardson	21	22	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	11	-21	14.2	15.7	-1.51	11.9	12.8	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.87,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.72,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 87, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,1	93.4%
IND 123, WAS 133	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.98,1	93.2%
ORL 92, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.85,1,1	93.0%