NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	131		Excitement	7.6 [127]		MVP	Ryan Nembhard (DAL): +36.3%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	4.7 [17]		LVP	Bruce Brown (DEN): -5.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Nembhard	0.36	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.36	0.29	0.09	0.01	14	100%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0.20	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.05	0.02	23	63%	0.20	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Cooper Flagg	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.08	-0.02	19	57%	0.23	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	10	62%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	50%	0.03
Dwight Powell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	80%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Max Christie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	5	90%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	15	87%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.00	-0.04	24	53%	0.13	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	54%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	14	54%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	9	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	0.0	31.0	0.0	23.7	0.0	28.1	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +63.7%

DEN -11.6%

DEN -3.0%

DEN -0.7%

DAL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	13.5	14.1	128.4	117.5	113.7
season	14.0	14.4		108.0	123.3
opponent	14.0	14.0		114.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.3	10.6	15.6	16.0	14.6
DEN	11.2	15.5	13.2	14.0	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cooper Flagg	88	91	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-5	20	14.5	15.0	-0.50	13.8	11.4	2.35
Max Christie	84	87	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.24	15	-5	20	14.5	14.8	-0.25	13.9	11.2	2.66
Ryan Nembhard	81	82	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.30	12	-2	14	14.5	14.9	-0.36	13.9	11.8	2.12
Naji Marshall	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	2	6	14.4	24.5	-10.13	13.6	6.0	7.64
Anthony Davis	92	95	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	1	8	14.6	14.7	-0.15	13.6	12.2	1.35
Klay Thompson	87	87	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.35	-5	15	-20	15.3	10.6	4.65	13.1	15.4	-2.30
D'Angelo Russell	55	55	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	6	-2	13.6	15.7	-2.18	14.7	12.1	2.57
Dwight Powell	81	83	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	17	-24	14.4	15.2	-0.78	13.6	13.0	0.61
Caleb Martin	26	26	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.14	-14	24	-38	16.3	14.0	2.39	11.2	14.3	-3.08
Brandon Williams	58	59	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.14	-15	25	-40	15.7	13.0	2.72	12.6	14.7	-2.11

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	34	33	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.06	9	-19	28	12.7	13.9	-1.22	14.8	14.5	0.28
Jamal Murray	75	73	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-8	6	13.3	14.0	-0.64	14.0	15.9	-1.86
Bruce Brown	80	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-14	18	13.6	13.2	0.36	15.1	12.8	2.32
Jonas Valan?i?nas	26	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-1	-8	15.8	12.7	3.04	11.8	15.4	-3.58
Tim Hardaway Jr.	92	91	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-11	12	13.3	14.9	-1.58	15.1	10.5	4.61
Nikola Joki?	103	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	13.5	0.0	13.50	14.6	0.0	14.57
Peyton Watson	99	97	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	4	-18	13.5	13.5	-0.01	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Spencer Jones	91	88	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.24	-15	5	-20	13.8	11.4	2.35	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Cameron Johnson	90	87	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.17	-18	8	-26	13.7	12.1	1.62	14.6	14.3	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.61,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.53,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.02,0	91.0%
SEA 84, CHH 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	91.0%
DET 100, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.22,0.24,0.05,0	90.8%