NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	113		Excitement	5.5 [693]		MVP	Anthony Black (ORL): +19.2%
Orlando Magic	121		Comeback	1.3 [507]		LVP	Moses Moody (GSW): -6.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler III	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.08	0.04	16	70%	0.23	3	-0.05	15	87%	0.01
Will Richard	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	-0.03	0.05	23	67%	0.13	5	-0.10	5	60%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	56%	0.03	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Moses Moody	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	13	64%	0.21	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Franz Wagner	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.02	-0.07	17	47%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	3	133%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.00	0.04	7	85%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	13	58%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.05	16	59%	0.09	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.02
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	11	48%	-0.01	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	0.0	34.1	0.0	27.9	0.0	33.9	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.9%

ORL +1.4%

ORL +12.1%

ORL +7.7%

ORL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	14.6	12.8	14.2	108.7	114.2	113.5
season	14.7	14.1		112.8	112.3
opponent	14.2	13.8		111.3	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.8	15.9	16.2	11.5	14.6
ORL	12.2	11.2	12.6	15.0	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quinten Post	41	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-3	-2	16.5	13.4	3.08	13.2	12.6	0.60
Draymond Green	89	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-7	6	14.4	15.5	-1.10	13.4	9.5	3.97
Will Richard	52	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	2	-12	15.1	14.1	1.00	12.5	13.1	-0.60
Moses Moody	84	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	3	-14	14.5	15.0	-0.56	12.1	15.8	-3.76
Brandin Podziemski	98	99	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	14.4	17.3	-2.90	13.3	6.3	6.98
Jimmy Butler III	104	106	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	14.6	0.0	14.60	12.8	0.0	12.80
Buddy Hield	79	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	7	-22	15.4	12.2	3.15	12.4	13.9	-1.49
Gary Payton II	77	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.12	-14	6	-20	15.5	12.1	3.36	13.1	11.9	1.24
Stephen Curry	99	101	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	2	-12	14.3	20.0	-5.68	12.6	17.8	-5.25
Al Horford	104	105	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	3	-14	14.6	0.0	14.60	12.9	2.0	10.90

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wendell Carter Jr.	104	102	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-1	10	12.8	11.5	1.33	14.5	21.0	-6.53
Franz Wagner	97	95	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-1	10	13.0	10.8	2.21	14.6	14.6	0.04
Desmond Bane	106	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	12.8	0.0	12.80	14.6	0.0	14.60
Anthony Black	106	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	12.8	0.0	12.80	14.6	0.0	14.60
Jalen Suggs	91	90	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	0	8	13.0	11.8	1.17	14.4	15.9	-1.46
Tristan da Silva	79	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-1	10	12.4	14.0	-1.66	15.7	11.2	4.47
Goga Bitadze	61	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-2	12	12.8	12.8	0.08	16.1	12.4	3.64
Tyus Jones	69	69	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	0	8	13.1	12.2	0.98	15.7	12.4	3.27
Jonathan Isaac	33	34	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	1	6	12.5	12.9	-0.42	16.1	13.9	2.22
Jamal Cain	26	26	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	1	6	12.6	12.9	-0.25	14.8	14.5	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.76,0.88,0.79,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, LAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 82, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.66,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
UTA 91, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%