NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	113		Excitement	12.8 [7]		MVP	Kevin Durant (HOU): +53.3%
Houston Rockets	117		Comeback	27.2 [24]		LVP	Steven Adams (HOU): -23.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Black	0.50	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.5,0.5	0.03	0.46	-0.01	14	55%	0.55	2	-0.05	5	60%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.05	0.09	0.01	11	58%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Desmond Bane	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.05	-0.04	20	57%	0.17	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.08
Jett Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	6	42%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Tristan da Silva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	10	59%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.08
Jonathan Isaac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	-0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	0.04	-0.19	0.02	21	53%	-0.13	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,0.12,0.12,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.53	0.53	0.12	0.43	0.01	24	64%	0.65	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.05
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	11	67%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.26,-0.32,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	13	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.24,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	31	42%	0.16	5	-0.28	10	80%	0.05
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.3,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	8	17%	-0.15	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.7	0.1	25.5	0.0	31.4	0.0	48.5	0.0	19.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	2.3	16.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +20.4%

HOU +3.2%

HOU +71.1%

ORL -52.0%

HOU +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.9	15.8	14.1	105.6	109.3	113.7
season	13.9	15.2		114.6	119.9
opponent	13.8	14.2		109.7	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	10.9	15.5	14.8	16.2	11.0	13.9
HOU	16.2	17.2	14.6	14.0	18.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	70	71	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.20	3	-7	10	14.2	13.5	0.67	15.6	16.1	-0.48
Tristan da Silva	98	100	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-8	12	14.3	10.1	4.16	16.4	6.1	10.30
Franz Wagner	99	100	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-8	12	14.1	11.2	2.89	16.4	6.1	10.30
Goga Bitadze	76	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-9	14	14.6	12.4	2.21	17.0	12.2	4.81
Jett Howard	79	81	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-4	4	13.6	14.8	-1.21	16.1	14.8	1.27
Jonathan Isaac	92	94	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-7	10	14.4	10.9	3.56	16.7	9.2	7.44
Anthony Black	94	94	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.45	3	-7	10	14.2	12.2	2.02	16.2	12.5	3.76
Wendell Carter Jr.	97	99	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-6	8	14.3	10.3	4.00	16.2	10.5	5.69
Desmond Bane	107	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	13.9	0.0	13.93	15.8	0.0	15.77

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	100	100	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	1	2	16.1	11.3	4.79	14.2	10.4	3.74
Kevin Durant	107	107	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.8	0.0	15.77	13.9	0.0	13.93
Josh Okogie	89	86	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.60	-4	8	-12	16.3	13.0	3.33	14.3	12.6	1.68
Reed Sheppard	104	101	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	0	4	16.0	8.0	7.99	14.1	11.0	3.10
Jabari Smith Jr.	106	105	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.39	2	2	0	15.9	2.0	13.90	14.0	7.5	6.55
Amen Thompson	98	96	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	7	-10	16.4	9.3	7.02	14.1	12.2	1.94
Alperen Sengun	91	89	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.44	-4	8	-12	16.7	10.4	6.27	14.6	10.6	4.05
Aaron Holiday	73	74	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	4	-4	16.3	14.6	1.64	13.3	15.4	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.5,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.45,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	89.2%
DEN 103, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.31,0.16,0.16,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.36,0.57,0.59,1	88.9%
CHH 110, IND 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.17,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.4,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.73,1	88.7%