NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	6.8 [318]		MVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (DEN): +35.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Comeback	2.0 [390]		LVP	Rudy Gobert (MIN): -6.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.36	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.25	0.11	0.01	8	105%	0.36	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Aaron Gordon	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	15	68%	0.18	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Nikola Joki?	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.02	0.04	15	71%	0.20	6	-0.16	8	100%	0.03
Bruce Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	7	39%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Spencer Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Julian Strawther	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	22	46%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	46%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	11	79%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.04	0.04	17	63%	0.16	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rob Dillingham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	23	45%	0.03	3	-0.06	12	83%	-0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	3	67%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.2	31.4	14.4	31.0	170.6	-193.3	83.9
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.3%

DEN +5.9%

DEN +20.4%

MIN -2.8%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.0	13.7	14.2	118.3	107.7	113.5
season	14.8	13.9		119.6	115.5
opponent	14.1	14.1		111.6	116.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	14.6	13.0	16.7	14.0
MIN	12.8	14.2	15.2	12.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Jones	76	76	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.20	22	-11	33	14.4	12.8	1.56	14.4	11.6	2.83
Tim Hardaway Jr.	85	85	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.12	22	-11	33	14.6	11.0	3.62	14.0	12.4	1.60
Peyton Watson	95	96	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.11	22	-11	33	14.0	13.9	0.08	14.2	7.9	6.28
Aaron Gordon	100	101	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.21	17	-6	23	14.2	8.2	5.94	13.8	9.0	4.81
Nikola Joki?	102	103	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.14	14	-3	17	14.0	10.5	3.53	13.7	10.0	3.71
Jamal Murray	104	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	14.0	0.0	13.96	13.7	0.0	13.67
Bruce Brown	96	95	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	4	3	14.0	13.6	0.36	13.9	11.7	2.20
Jonas Valan?i?nas	22	22	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	7	-3	19.0	12.6	6.45	13.6	13.7	-0.05
Julian Strawther	46	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	18	-25	13.2	14.6	-1.41	12.9	14.3	-1.32

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rob Dillingham	20	19	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-12	13	14.3	13.5	0.78	15.4	13.6	1.72
Jaylen Clark	67	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	6	-23	15.0	11.4	3.60	13.4	14.9	-1.51
Mike Conley	95	95	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	-3	-5	13.9	11.7	2.20	14.0	13.3	0.69
Julius Randle	104	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.7	0.0	13.67	14.0	0.0	13.96
Anthony Edwards	104	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.7	0.0	13.67	14.0	0.0	13.96
Naz Reid	91	92	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	1	-13	13.9	11.8	2.18	14.1	12.6	1.56
Rudy Gobert	63	64	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.07	-23	12	-35	14.6	12.3	2.28	15.0	12.3	2.74
Jaden McDaniels	79	79	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.05	-24	13	-37	14.1	12.4	1.62	14.6	11.8	2.79
Donte DiVincenzo	89	89	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.17	-23	12	-35	14.3	10.2	4.06	14.5	10.9	3.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.63,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.28,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, ORL 75	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.11,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.1%
WAS 100, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0	92.0%
MIN 86, NOK 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.04,0,0,0	92.0%