NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	138		Excitement	15.0 [3]		MVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): +72.0%
Miami Heat	140		Comeback	6.7 [115]		LVP	Jaylon Tyson (CLE): -12.4%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Mobley	0.44	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.44	0.05	0.39	-0.00	15	57%	0.50	2	-0.06	7	29%	-0.17
De'Andre Hunter	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.12	0.00	19	56%	0.23	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.05
Donovan Mitchell	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.17,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,0.13	-0.00	0.14	0.01	28	45%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Porter Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	46%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jarrett Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	9	67%	0.11	3	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Sam Merrill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	16	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylon Tyson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	10	41%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.29,0.51,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.72	0.72	0.10	0.63	0.02	12	69%	0.77	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.08
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.55	0.55	0.12	0.41	-0.02	13	72%	0.67	2	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	14	50%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	9	62%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.05	0.19	-0.06	0.08	19	63%	0.19	1	-0.14	14	93%	0.04
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	55%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	10	36%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	53%	0.07	3	-0.11	3	67%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.22,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	9	55%	0.11	5	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.4	1.3	35.0	14.3	36.2	0.0	31.1	0.0	24.2	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	2.2	16.6	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +62.3%

MIA +36.7%

CLE -27.5%

CLE -27.1%

MIA +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	12.2	14.2	116.9	120.7	113.5
season	13.5	12.8		116.0	113.3
opponent	14.5	14.5		110.4	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CLE	14.7	16.9	13.5	14.5	15.8	14.9
MIA	11.4	11.9	11.7	13.8	12.3	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Wade	109	108	0.55	-1.05	1.60	0.26	10	-12	22	15.0	14.6	0.42	12.4	9.0	3.42
Lonzo Ball	100	100	0.34	-0.84	1.19	0.05	10	-12	22	14.9	15.1	-0.14	12.5	9.9	2.60
Jarrett Allen	79	79	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.04	2	-4	6	15.1	14.6	0.49	12.4	11.7	0.70
Craig Porter Jr.	11	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	2	-6	16.6	14.8	1.87	14.2	12.0	2.21
Sam Merrill	117	116	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-2	2	15.0	10.0	4.98	12.2	0.0	12.18
Darius Garland	52	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	7	-16	15.4	14.6	0.76	12.7	11.8	0.92
Jaylon Tyson	117	115	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	1	-4	15.1	0.0	15.07	12.3	0.0	12.29
De'Andre Hunter	94	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	3	-8	15.3	13.5	1.81	13.0	9.2	3.75
Evan Mobley	106	105	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	1	-4	15.3	12.2	3.09	12.4	10.4	2.01
Donovan Mitchell	118	116	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	14.9	0.0	14.94	12.2	0.0	12.18

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norman Powell	102	104	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-8	18	12.3	11.3	1.02	15.4	11.8	3.58
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	116	118	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	12.2	0.0	12.18	14.9	0.0	14.94
Nikola Jovi?	103	104	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.44	1	1	0	12.2	12.1	0.12	15.0	14.9	0.09
Andrew Wiggins	105	107	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	12.5	8.9	3.61	15.3	11.9	3.34
Davion Mitchell	97	100	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	-4	10	12.8	9.0	3.80	15.6	11.3	4.26
Kel'el Ware	94	94	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-1	4	12.8	9.7	3.03	15.3	13.5	1.81
Dru Smith	73	73	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	12	-22	12.6	11.4	1.21	14.1	16.3	-2.14
Pelle Larsson	76	76	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.05	-9	11	-20	13.1	10.4	2.72	14.7	15.4	-0.68
Simone Fontecchio	73	74	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	14	-26	12.6	11.4	1.21	14.0	16.6	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 122, ATL 123	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.92,1	90.0%
SAC 90, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.25,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	88.8%
CLE 103, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.53,0.76,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.83,0.95,1	88.8%