NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	100		Excitement	4.9 [96]		MVP	Aaron Nesmith (IND): +18.6%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	1.3 [114]		LVP	Pascal Siakam (IND): -5.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Nesmith	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.22	0.01	0.04	10	89%	0.22	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Andrew Nembhard	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	20	48%	0.09	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Tony Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
RayJ Dennis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ben Sheppard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarace Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mont� Morris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jay Huff	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	16	37%	-0.03	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	13	65%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	13	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	14	80%	0.20	8	-0.15	12	92%	0.03
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	0.0	35.1	0.0	32.3	0.0	32.6	0.0
league avg	26.2	2.3	28.6	14.8	29.1	2.3	32.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +45.5%

DEN +2.5%

DEN +10.6%

IND -10.9%

DEN +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	12.1	14.6	13.7	93.5	108.3	110.7
season	13.5	13.9		101.6	116.5
opponent	13.4	13.8		104.8	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.5	12.6	10.9	12.5	12.1
DEN	13.1	16.9	14.8	14.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarace Walker	64	67	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-16	15	12.3	11.8	0.48	15.8	12.8	2.96
RayJ Dennis	26	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.05	-4	-13	9	12.5	12.0	0.52	14.1	14.8	-0.72
Cody Martin	36	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-8	-1	13.0	11.6	1.39	14.6	14.7	-0.11
Tony Bradley	82	85	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-10	3	12.6	10.4	2.27	15.2	12.6	2.63
Jay Huff	67	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-10	3	11.9	12.5	-0.67	15.2	13.6	1.59
Aaron Nesmith	78	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-8	-1	12.4	11.3	1.13	15.3	12.7	2.61
Mont� Morris	84	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	-5	-7	12.0	12.3	-0.26	14.7	14.3	0.39
Pascal Siakam	93	93	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	2	-21	12.2	11.4	0.86	15.1	11.7	3.45
Andrew Nembhard	93	93	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	2	-21	12.2	11.4	0.86	15.1	11.7	3.45
Isaiah Jackson	82	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.04	-21	4	-25	11.9	12.7	-0.75	15.0	13.4	1.64
Ben Sheppard	92	93	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.15	-26	9	-35	12.2	11.4	0.82	14.2	17.4	-3.21
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	89	90	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	0.18	-28	11	-39	12.2	11.6	0.66	14.5	15.2	-0.70

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Strawther	97	96	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.12	26	-9	35	14.3	17.9	-3.64	12.1	12.1	0.01
Bruce Brown	88	88	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.21	27	-10	37	14.4	15.6	-1.18	12.2	11.8	0.32
Tim Hardaway Jr.	83	82	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.04	20	-3	23	15.0	13.6	1.40	11.9	12.8	-0.91
Spencer Jones	100	100	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.10	20	-3	23	14.9	11.9	2.99	12.1	11.7	0.42
Jonas Valan?i?nas	52	52	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	5	7	16.0	13.4	2.66	11.8	12.4	-0.65
Nikola Joki?	94	93	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	2	13	14.8	13.6	1.23	12.3	10.5	1.84
Peyton Watson	87	84	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	8	1	14.8	13.9	0.91	12.5	10.7	1.74
Cameron Johnson	81	77	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	10	-3	15.0	13.6	1.40	12.3	11.7	0.56
Christian Braun	74	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	15	-13	14.9	14.0	0.89	12.2	11.9	0.24
Hunter Tyson	28	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.05	4	13	-9	14.1	14.8	-0.72	12.5	12.0	0.52
Zeke Nnaji	28	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.05	4	13	-9	14.1	14.8	-0.72	12.5	12.0	0.52
Jalen Pickett	75	71	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	18	-19	15.2	13.3	1.97	11.9	12.6	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.82,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
GSW 73, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
WAS 111, TOR 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.77,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.98,1,1	94.6%