NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	8.7 [27]		MVP	Naji Marshall (DAL): +41.4%
Washington Wizards	105		Comeback	5.6 [15]		LVP	CJ McCollum (WAS): -15.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naji Marshall	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41	0.23	0.18	-0.00	14	77%	0.41	0	0.00	11	82%	0.05
P.J. Washington	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.11	0.02	8	64%	0.17	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Daniel Gafford	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Max Christie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	14	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.04,0,0,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	16	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Nembhard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	10	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Moussa Cisse	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	3	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.10
Cooper Flagg	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	15	40%	-0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cam Whitmore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.01	13	68%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	7	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Champagnie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamir Watkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bub Carrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.05	-0.00	7	53%	0.12	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.05
Alex Sarr	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	16	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Tre Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	13	35%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kyshawn George	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.06	-0.19	0.02	19	57%	-0.01	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	0.1	31.3	0.1	39.0	1.3	34.2	134.8
league avg	26.2	2.3	28.6	14.8	29.1	2.3	32.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +12.9%

WAS -12.2%

DAL +24.8%

DAL +24.2%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	WAS	NBA	DAL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.0	14.5	13.7	105.7	101.0	110.7
season	13.5	13.1		101.2	101.5
opponent	13.6	13.7		118.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	11.8	13.6	12.8	13.9	13.0
WAS	15.7	12.5	13.9	16.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Williams	91	90	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.34	10	-4	14	12.9	14.0	-1.11	14.7	13.4	1.32
Cooper Flagg	98	97	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-3	12	13.2	11.4	1.72	14.5	14.9	-0.38
Max Christie	74	73	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.46	5	1	4	13.1	13.0	0.10	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Naji Marshall	105	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	13.0	0.0	13.04	14.5	0.0	14.50
P.J. Washington	99	96	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	6	-6	13.2	11.0	2.16	14.3	16.5	-2.17
Moussa Cisse	77	78	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	5	-4	12.1	15.5	-3.41	14.6	14.3	0.31
Daniel Gafford	56	56	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	9	-12	13.2	12.9	0.34	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Jaden Hardy	68	70	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.05	-2	8	-10	12.5	14.1	-1.65	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Dwight Powell	73	74	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	9	-12	12.4	14.5	-2.06	14.2	15.2	-0.98
Ryan Nembhard	55	54	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.01	-8	14	-22	12.7	13.4	-0.73	14.4	14.6	-0.12
D'Angelo Russell	53	51	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.19	-17	23	-40	13.7	12.3	1.37	13.3	15.7	-2.40

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malaki Branham	37	37	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.02	5	-11	16	15.2	14.1	1.03	12.4	13.4	-0.94
Jamir Watkins	26	26	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.10	4	-10	14	12.9	15.0	-2.15	13.7	12.8	0.82
Corey Kispert	86	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-9	12	14.6	13.9	0.67	13.6	10.3	3.27
Alex Sarr	85	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-9	12	14.2	15.9	-1.71	13.7	10.0	3.67
Justin Champagnie	47	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-7	8	15.3	13.8	1.53	14.3	11.9	2.49
Tre Johnson	79	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.50	1	-7	8	14.3	15.3	-1.03	13.6	11.2	2.37
Bub Carrington	102	103	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	14.6	7.0	7.65	13.3	1.5	11.76
Kyshawn George	83	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-5	4	14.5	14.6	-0.15	13.4	11.1	2.33
Marvin Bagley III	84	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	2	-10	15.2	11.5	3.65	13.0	13.0	-0.01
Cam Whitmore	88	89	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.37	-6	0	-6	15.1	11.1	4.06	13.2	12.1	1.15
CJ McCollum	89	89	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.43	-14	8	-22	14.8	13.0	1.75	13.1	12.4	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.43,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.55,0.29,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, DET 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.39,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.01,0	91.2%
HOU 105, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.75,0.63,0.59,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.01,0,0	90.5%
TOR 98, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.22,0.04,0.09,0	90.2%