NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	116		Excitement	9.1 [62]		MVP	Deandre Ayton (LAL): +28.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	118		Comeback	8.7 [52]		LVP	Julian Champagnie (SAS): -25.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Sochan	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.08	-0.02	7	89%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.08	-0.01	6	100%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lindy Waters III	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	2	150%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.00	14	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Stephon Castle	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.08	6	-0.16	11	82%	-0.00
Victor Wembanyama	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	14	49%	0.19	5	-0.30	11	82%	0.07
Julian Champagnie	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.25	-0.08	-0.17	-0.00	14	44%	-0.13	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.29

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.14	0.01	13	73%	0.29	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	62%	0.10	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	4	69%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Luka Don?i?	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	27	49%	0.22	4	-0.16	17	76%	0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	10	57%	0.22	3	-0.18	10	100%	0.09
Bronny James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	9	40%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	2.3	35.7	14.8	36.2	3.3	46.7	170.1
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -5.8%

LAL +11.5%

LAL +26.4%

LAL +15.7%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	14.1	114.9	114.6	113.7
season	14.0	14.5		117.1	117.0
opponent	14.0	14.3		115.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.9	14.2	12.2	14.8	13.5
LAL	16.3	14.0	14.9	13.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindy Waters III	62	63	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.07	12	-14	26	12.9	14.6	-1.76	16.0	12.6	3.39
Jordan McLaughlin	24	25	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-5	8	12.9	13.7	-0.87	16.3	14.1	2.15
Victor Wembanyama	97	100	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-1	0	13.6	12.7	0.82	14.7	12.0	2.73
Stephon Castle	93	96	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-5	8	13.5	13.7	-0.23	14.5	16.4	-1.91
Kelly Olynyk	82	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.49	2	-4	6	13.6	13.1	0.53	15.3	11.9	3.41
Jeremy Sochan	96	100	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	1	-4	13.7	9.6	4.14	15.1	0.0	15.09
Devin Vassell	96	98	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-2	2	13.6	11.6	2.04	14.6	15.4	-0.79
Harrison Barnes	64	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	1	-4	13.9	12.9	0.97	15.2	13.7	1.48
Keldon Johnson	101	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	13.5	0.0	13.53	14.7	0.0	14.65
Julian Champagnie	79	80	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.59	-1	-1	0	13.6	13.3	0.28	14.3	16.0	-1.68

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	85	84	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.57	1	1	0	14.6	14.7	-0.09	13.7	12.6	1.07
Luka Don?i?	102	100	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	-1	4	14.8	0.0	14.79	13.6	9.0	4.58
Marcus Smart	91	89	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.48	-1	3	-4	14.4	16.7	-2.38	13.6	13.1	0.51
Rui Hachimura	83	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.50	-2	4	-6	14.6	14.7	-0.06	13.7	12.6	1.11
Jaxson Hayes	84	82	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	4	-6	15.2	12.4	2.73	13.2	14.9	-1.68
Jake LaRavia	96	92	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	5	-8	14.5	16.4	-1.91	13.6	13.2	0.34
Bronny James	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	3	-4	18.0	14.3	3.71	13.3	13.6	-0.26
Nick Smith Jr.	33	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	5	-8	16.8	13.7	3.10	12.9	13.8	-0.86
Jarred Vanderbilt	77	74	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.13	-7	9	-16	15.2	12.9	2.31	13.2	14.6	-1.39
Dalton Knecht	58	56	-0.55	1.05	-1.60	-0.05	-17	19	-36	15.9	13.0	2.93	13.0	14.2	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.36,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.38,0.25,0.45,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.23,0.1,0.24,0.39,0.19,0.54,0.84,1,1	92.2%
TOR 98, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.26,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.63,0.67,1,1	92.1%
HOU 77, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.72,0.87,0.87,1	91.9%