NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	112		Excitement	9.3 [51]		MVP	Jose Alvarado (NOP): +55.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	116		Comeback	24.1 [25]		LVP	Sion James (CHA): -23.3%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
KJ Simpson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	6	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tre Mann	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.07	0.04	0.04	-0.00	13	69%	0.27	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kalkbrenner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kon Knueppel	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	16	57%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Moussa Diabat�	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Miles Bridges	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.02,-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.01	19	49%	0.02	1	-0.05	7	71%	0.00
Liam McNeeley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Collin Sexton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	14	53%	0.02	5	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Sion James	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.23	-0.03	-0.20	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.24	4	75%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.56	0.56	0.14	0.42	-0.00	11	82%	0.59	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.07	0.00	9	77%	0.20	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.03	-0.00	16	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Karlo Matkovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	7	72%	0.10	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.05	-0.03	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derik Queen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,-0.02,-0.16	-0.16	0.03	-0.18	0.00	7	71%	0.14	3	-0.29	3	67%	-0.01
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	14	34%	-0.11	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	0.6	31.0	0.0	28.1	0.0	34.2	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +34.6%

CHA -3.8%

NOP +26.0%

CHA -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	NOP	NBA	CHA	NOP	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	14.1	110.9	114.9	113.7
season	14.5	14.4		112.4	110.5
opponent	13.7	14.1		118.4	116.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	13.6	13.8	14.0	13.8	13.8
NOP	13.5	13.9	17.3	14.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tre Mann	98	98	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.32	2	-6	8	14.1	4.7	9.38	15.1	3.0	12.08
Ryan Kalkbrenner	82	83	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.17	3	-7	10	14.1	12.4	1.66	15.1	13.2	1.89
Collin Sexton	84	84	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.21	-4	0	-4	14.2	11.8	2.41	15.1	13.1	2.00
Liam McNeeley	84	85	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-2	0	13.9	13.1	0.86	15.3	11.4	3.90
Moussa Diabat�	71	71	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.15	-5	1	-6	13.6	14.3	-0.70	15.9	12.0	3.92
KJ Simpson	64	64	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-2	0	13.1	14.9	-1.72	15.7	13.1	2.59
Pat Connaughton	23	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	0	-4	14.0	13.7	0.24	14.7	14.7	-0.09
Kon Knueppel	89	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.45	2	-6	8	13.6	15.4	-1.87	15.4	9.8	5.60
Miles Bridges	101	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	13.8	0.0	13.77	14.7	0.0	14.72
Sion James	86	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.47	-1	-3	2	13.3	16.7	-3.48	15.2	12.3	2.88

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derik Queen	39	39	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.45	13	-9	22	14.0	15.2	-1.22	13.7	13.8	-0.17
Jose Alvarado	88	89	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.42	8	-4	12	14.7	14.8	-0.05	13.7	14.2	-0.45
Trey Murphy III	88	89	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	0	4	15.3	10.7	4.63	13.3	17.1	-3.76
Saddiq Bey	100	101	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	0	4	14.9	1.0	13.86	13.8	0.0	13.77
Herbert Jones	101	100	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	14.7	0.0	14.72	13.9	0.0	13.91
Jordan Poole	85	87	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	0	4	15.4	11.2	4.20	14.0	12.4	1.56
Jordan Hawkins	67	68	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.10	0	4	-4	15.5	13.1	2.42	14.0	13.3	0.65
Karlo Matkovi?	49	50	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.04	-5	9	-14	15.3	14.2	1.13	13.8	13.8	-0.02
Jeremiah Fears	50	50	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.02	-14	18	-32	15.4	14.1	1.30	13.1	14.4	-1.25
Kevon Looney	46	45	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	0.11	-19	23	-42	15.6	14.0	1.55	12.9	14.5	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.04,0.32,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, UTA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.23,0.42,1	90.6%
SEA 80, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.16,1	90.4%
ORL 94, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.09,1	90.0%