NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	120		Excitement	9.5 [86]		MVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIA): +27.8%
LA Clippers	119		Comeback	4.0 [92]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (LAC): -28.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.20	0.00	12	71%	0.33	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0.13,0.2	0.09	0.08	-0.03	18	61%	0.31	2	-0.11	5	60%	-0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	8	89%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	85%	0.10	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Nikola Jovi?	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Dru Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	58%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.11	0.08	-0.17	0.02	10	78%	0.21	5	-0.32	7	100%	0.05

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.05,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	15	78%	0.55	7	-0.45	7	100%	0.05
Kris Dunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	11	52%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Nicolas Batum	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.29	-0.29	0.08	-0.35	0.02	21	57%	-0.24	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.4	27.2	13.4	31.2	1.4	31.8	132.4
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.8%

MIA +8.6%

LAC -15.7%

MIA +21.0%

MIA +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	12.3	15.3	14.2	114.3	114.4	113.5
season	12.8	15.3		113.3	114.4
opponent	14.2	14.5		114.3	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.4	12.6	12.0	13.0	12.3
LAC	16.8	14.0	15.0	15.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	63	62	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.49	3	-2	5	12.4	12.0	0.37	15.0	15.6	-0.57
Davion Mitchell	94	94	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	-2	5	12.3	12.1	0.20	15.2	16.4	-1.24
Andrew Wiggins	94	94	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	-2	5	12.3	12.1	0.20	15.2	16.4	-1.24
Norman Powell	83	82	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.48	-3	4	-7	12.3	12.0	0.39	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Bam Adebayo	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	5	-9	12.3	12.1	0.21	14.9	17.1	-2.23
Kel'el Ware	70	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	-8	17	11.8	13.2	-1.36	16.1	13.6	2.49
Dru Smith	70	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	-8	17	11.8	13.2	-1.36	16.1	13.6	2.49
Simone Fontecchio	66	69	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.10	10	-9	19	11.8	13.1	-1.37	15.4	15.0	0.38
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	90	92	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	1	-1	12.2	12.6	-0.39	14.9	18.5	-3.64
Nikola Jovi?	79	82	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	2	-3	12.2	12.5	-0.36	15.2	15.6	-0.40

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	25	25	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.03	10	-11	21	14.6	15.5	-0.95	12.8	12.1	0.70
Brook Lopez	48	49	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.10	3	-4	7	16.5	14.2	2.27	12.0	12.5	-0.42
Chris Paul	65	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	6	-13	15.2	15.4	-0.21	12.0	12.6	-0.59
Bradley Beal	51	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	3	-7	15.2	15.4	-0.20	12.1	12.4	-0.23
Kris Dunn	96	96	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-1	1	15.5	12.2	3.28	12.6	8.8	3.82
Derrick Jones Jr.	85	87	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.49	6	-7	13	14.9	17.1	-2.17	12.4	11.5	0.93
James Harden	86	87	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-2	3	14.8	17.6	-2.82	12.2	12.4	-0.21
Ivica Zubac	100	100	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	0	-1	15.3	14.5	0.81	12.4	9.8	2.59
John Collins	86	85	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	8	-17	16.0	11.9	4.10	12.3	11.9	0.39
Kawhi Leonard	104	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	15.3	0.0	15.28	12.3	0.0	12.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.35,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.25,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 111, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.65,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.4,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.32,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.02,0	90.2%
TOR 111, CHA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.1,0.01,0	90.1%
DAL 93, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.11,0.02,0	89.7%