NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	6.8 [438]		MVP	Simone Fontecchio (MIA): +18.2%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.0 [672]		LVP	Nikola Jovi? (MIA): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Simone Fontecchio	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.02	-0.01	9	86%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	18	63%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	27	53%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	8	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dru Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	12	68%	0.17	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	69%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	8	56%	0.12	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Devin Vassell	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	16	50%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.01	23	50%	0.09	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.02	10	59%	0.08	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	0.0	28.6	0.0	25.0	0.0	35.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.5%

SAS +3.6%

SAS +3.3%

SAS +14.0%

SAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	13.6	15.1	14.2	102.0	105.9	113.7
season	12.9	13.8		114.3	117.9
opponent	14.5	14.5		109.4	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.4	14.9	16.3	13.5	13.6
SAS	14.7	13.9	15.0	17.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-3	0	14.0	13.1	0.93	15.5	14.7	0.77
Davion Mitchell	80	80	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.39	8	-14	22	14.1	11.6	2.46	15.8	12.5	3.30
Andrew Wiggins	82	83	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.34	6	-12	18	13.8	12.8	1.03	15.7	12.3	3.41
Bam Adebayo	93	94	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-10	14	13.2	19.3	-6.09	15.4	11.4	3.99
Dru Smith	93	93	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.31	3	-9	12	13.5	15.0	-1.47	15.5	10.5	5.04
Kel'el Ware	61	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	4	-14	14.2	12.7	1.47	15.3	14.8	0.52
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	98	99	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	2	-10	13.7	7.0	6.68	15.1	17.0	-1.90
Simone Fontecchio	98	100	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	13.7	9.0	4.66	15.3	0.0	15.29
Nikola Jovi?	55	55	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	11	-28	13.1	14.3	-1.26	15.0	15.3	-0.26

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	100	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.3	0.0	15.29	13.7	9.0	4.66
Jordan McLaughlin	61	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-3	12	15.3	14.8	0.52	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Julian Champagnie	95	94	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	6	-6	15.5	9.3	6.17	13.5	15.2	-1.67
Stephon Castle	85	85	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.31	-5	11	-16	15.7	12.2	3.51	13.7	13.4	0.30
Devin Vassell	88	88	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.39	-9	15	-24	15.8	10.9	4.84	13.8	12.4	1.41
Bismack Biyombo	49	50	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	7	-8	16.1	14.2	1.91	13.2	14.1	-0.88
Harrison Barnes	68	68	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.38	-14	20	-34	16.4	12.5	3.85	13.4	14.2	-0.84
Keldon Johnson	86	84	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	7	-8	15.2	14.9	0.24	13.5	14.1	-0.53
Dylan Harper	88	87	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.06	-1	7	-8	15.0	16.3	-1.34	13.7	13.2	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.38,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.74,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.88,0.83,0.68,0.53,0.42,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, SEA 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.38,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.85,0.98,1,1	91.4%
WAS 91, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.52,0.63,0.71,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	91.0%
CHH 66, CLE 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.79,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.95,1	90.8%