NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	120		Excitement	11.2 [25]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +19.4%
New Orleans Pelicans	116		Comeback	5.5 [225]		LVP	Herbert Jones (NOP): -26.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	23	58%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kornet	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	9	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Devin Vassell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	19	57%	0.19	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03
Jordan McLaughlin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Stephon Castle	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01	-0.14	0.11	-0.04	12	53%	0.41	9	-0.40	6	50%	-0.02
Julian Champagnie	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	44%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carter Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Harper	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	12	43%	0.04	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.07

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.12	0.03	18	62%	0.23	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Zion Williamson	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.14	0.01	18	52%	0.22	4	-0.09	16	69%	-0.11
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derik Queen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Alvarado	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.11	0.04	20	50%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	-0.01
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	8	0%	-0.18	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.4	0.0	32.6	0.0	28.1	0.0	36.3	0.0	20.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	2.2	16.6	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +52.3%

NOP -3.5%

SAS +24.2%

NOP -23.2%

SAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOP	NBA	SAS	NOP	NBA
this game	14.0	15.3	14.2	108.1	109.4	113.5
season	13.8	14.2		115.8	111.3
opponent	14.1	14.5		117.2	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	12.5	15.3	13.8	15.7	11.4	14.0
NOP	16.2	13.4	15.6	15.8	15.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	77	75	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.49	8	-4	12	13.7	14.8	-1.09	16.3	12.8	3.45
Julian Champagnie	93	90	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.32	12	-8	20	14.2	13.1	1.07	16.0	11.4	4.53
Luke Kornet	109	106	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.48	6	-2	8	14.2	1.0	13.25	15.3	0.0	15.28
Stephon Castle	94	92	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	-4	12	13.7	15.9	-2.21	15.5	13.9	1.56
Devin Vassell	105	101	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	13.9	15.3	-1.40	15.2	16.8	-1.59
Jordan McLaughlin	51	48	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-2	8	13.1	14.7	-1.61	15.9	14.7	1.20
Victor Wembanyama	100	96	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	3	-2	14.4	10.1	4.35	15.4	14.6	0.75
Carter Bryant	6	5	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	9	-14	17.0	13.8	3.16	23.8	14.9	8.94
Dylan Harper	95	92	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.23	2	2	0	14.6	10.7	3.88	15.6	13.1	2.47
Keldon Johnson	80	76	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.06	-5	9	-14	14.2	13.5	0.68	15.0	16.0	-0.95

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hawkins	64	66	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.14	4	-8	12	16.5	13.4	3.15	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Jose Alvarado	14	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	16.6	15.1	1.48	14.7	13.9	0.76
Saddiq Bey	75	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	0	-4	15.4	15.0	0.40	14.3	13.4	0.95
Derik Queen	101	106	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	6	-16	15.5	10.8	4.70	14.2	9.2	5.04
Trey Murphy III	106	110	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	2	-8	15.3	0.0	15.28	14.1	2.0	12.12
Jeremiah Fears	88	92	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.48	-6	2	-8	16.2	10.7	5.49	13.7	15.6	-1.96
Zion Williamson	101	105	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.42	-8	4	-12	15.6	9.0	6.59	13.8	17.3	-3.51
Jordan Poole	101	104	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.51	-8	4	-12	15.6	9.0	6.59	13.8	17.0	-3.19
Herbert Jones	88	90	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.46	-16	12	-28	16.4	10.0	6.36	13.6	15.9	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.66,0.67,0.85,0.64,0.35,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.09,0.42,0.5,0.25,0.22,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.19,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.54,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.09,0	90.4%
CHI 119, CHA 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.33,0.27,0.46,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.08,0	87.1%
PHX 134, CLE 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.12,0.21,0.31,0.19,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.54,0.19,0.03,0,0,0	87.1%