NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	121		Excitement	10.3 [23]		MVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIA): +24.8%
Orlando Magic	125		Comeback	9.3 [95]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -26.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.36,0.25	0.06	0.18	-0.00	12	58%	0.29	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.03
Simone Fontecchio	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	9	72%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	7	81%	0.18	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	0.10	-0.07	0.05	19	62%	0.15	3	-0.17	7	86%	-0.01
Dru Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	6	56%	-0.00	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	0.03	-0.15	0.00	15	53%	-0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.26	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.25,-0.26	-0.08	-0.18	0.01	13	45%	-0.16	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.12	-0.01	7	100%	0.34	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.11	0.00	8	80%	0.24	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.14	0.01	5	60%	0.20	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.07
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0,0,0.09,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	17	52%	0.18	2	-0.07	12	75%	0.03
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	4	80%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.09	0.02	17	60%	0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Anthony Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	9	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13	-0.13	0.00	-0.09	0.04	18	55%	-0.01	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.05
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	0.0	28.7	0.0	29.6	0.0	42.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +5.4%

ORL +25.1%

MIA -2.4%

ORL +22.6%

MIA -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	12.5	13.3	14.1	109.0	111.6	113.7
season	12.4	13.9		113.4	114.6
opponent	14.2	14.7		110.5	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.9	13.0	14.7	11.5	12.5
ORL	13.2	13.2	13.0	13.7	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dru Smith	74	74	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.16	9	-13	22	12.3	12.8	-0.42	13.8	12.2	1.59
Simone Fontecchio	80	80	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.15	5	-9	14	12.8	11.6	1.24	13.6	12.5	1.06
Pelle Larsson	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.02	-1	-3	2	12.4	12.5	-0.04	13.1	13.3	-0.19
Bam Adebayo	97	97	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-6	8	12.6	11.3	1.36	13.5	12.1	1.33
Norman Powell	102	103	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.46	4	-8	12	12.8	9.3	3.42	13.5	11.3	2.12
Davion Mitchell	100	101	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-5	6	12.9	8.3	4.67	13.4	12.0	1.43
Kel'el Ware	91	93	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-4	4	12.4	12.7	-0.33	13.4	12.7	0.72
Nikola Jovi?	90	90	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-4	4	12.7	11.4	1.29	13.3	13.4	-0.15
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	103	104	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-4	4	12.5	12.1	0.38	13.4	11.2	2.19
Andrew Wiggins	105	106	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-1	-2	12.3	16.3	-4.08	13.4	12.0	1.36

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Franz Wagner	112	111	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.3	0.0	13.29	12.5	0.0	12.48
Jalen Suggs	85	83	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	5	-6	13.3	13.2	0.13	12.3	13.0	-0.70
Desmond Bane	96	95	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	6	-8	13.4	12.6	0.84	12.6	11.6	1.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	89	88	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.44	-6	10	-16	13.5	12.5	0.96	12.6	12.2	0.38
Paolo Banchero	100	99	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.43	-6	10	-16	13.6	10.4	3.21	12.5	12.6	-0.12
Tristan da Silva	86	85	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.12	-5	9	-14	13.6	12.2	1.47	12.7	11.8	0.92
Anthony Black	88	88	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.11	-6	10	-16	13.7	11.8	1.85	12.6	11.9	0.77
Jonathan Isaac	40	39	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.04	-12	16	-28	13.3	13.2	0.10	13.1	12.1	1.00
Goga Bitadze	87	87	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.16	-7	11	-18	13.3	13.1	0.26	12.3	13.0	-0.67
Tyus Jones	69	68	-0.60	1.10	-1.71	-0.02	-20	24	-44	13.7	12.6	1.07	12.2	12.9	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.27,0.44,0.55,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, SEA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.73,1	91.9%
MIL 92, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.38,0.28,0.57,0.73,1	91.1%
MIA 96, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.55,0.67,0.85,1	90.6%