NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	7.9 [221]		MVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): +33.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	6.2 [215]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -23.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.11	0.00	5	80%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	13	60%	0.13	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.06
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	24	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.04
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	15	47%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	12	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.11	0.23	0.00	19	67%	0.40	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.15	0.00	6	87%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	14	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	12	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.07
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.23	-0.23	-0.21	-0.03	-0.01	18	40%	-0.04	7	-0.19	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.2	0.2	29.1	15.6	24.5	1.8	32.3	122.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.8%

MIL +9.9%

MIL +32.5%

MIA -19.9%

MIL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.6	15.5	105.5	111.8	100.9
season	16.3	14.9		98.4	105.9
opponent	15.8	16.1		102.3	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	19.9	16.1	16.2	16.7
MIL	15.4	11.4	17.4	14.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	6	7	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-11	14	15.8	16.7	-0.91	17.1	14.4	2.70
Cedric Ceballos	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-6	4	13.8	17.2	-3.40	16.9	14.3	2.61
Alonzo Mourning	35	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	-3	-2	16.1	17.1	-0.97	15.3	14.2	1.04
Eddie House	30	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	1	-10	16.8	16.6	0.18	12.9	15.6	-2.65
Tim Hardaway	78	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-6	4	16.6	17.3	-0.73	14.7	14.5	0.17
Dan Majerle	65	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.36	-2	-6	4	16.4	17.3	-0.88	14.9	14.1	0.74
Bruce Bowen	86	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	17.0	11.0	6.01	14.5	16.8	-2.28
Brian Grant	62	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.33	-7	-1	-6	17.4	15.1	2.37	14.3	15.4	-1.11
Anthony Mason	80	80	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.40	-10	2	-12	16.8	15.8	0.98	14.7	14.2	0.57

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	40	38	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-9	26	14.7	14.6	0.14	17.8	15.8	1.99
Sam Cassell	75	73	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.44	7	1	6	14.7	14.6	0.11	16.2	18.7	-2.47
Glenn Robinson	76	74	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	4	0	14.7	14.4	0.29	16.2	18.8	-2.63
Ray Allen	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	5	-2	14.4	15.5	-1.11	16.9	15.8	1.13
Ervin Johnson	63	63	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.36	-1	9	-10	15.7	12.5	3.17	16.6	16.9	-0.36
Jason Caffey	46	46	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.16	11	-3	14	14.9	14.4	0.57	16.9	16.4	0.51
Mark Pope	7	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	6	-4	11.7	14.9	-3.17	19.4	16.4	2.95
Lindsey Hunter	50	47	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.31	8	0	8	13.1	16.5	-3.43	17.3	16.0	1.32
Darvin Ham	34	32	-0.30	0.81	-1.11	0.02	-11	19	-30	15.5	14.1	1.39	15.3	17.4	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.55,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, CLE 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.23,0.22,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.55,0.78,0.91,1	92.8%
LAL 108, MEM 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.95,1	92.3%
IND 87, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.72,1	91.9%