NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	119		Excitement	7.2 [146]		MVP	Austin Reaves (LAL): +55.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	129		Comeback	2.3 [257]		LVP	Brandon Williams (DAL): -9.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Nembhard	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.15	-0.01	11	77%	0.27	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.00	8	70%	0.25	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.08
Anthony Davis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	19	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	-0.00
Cooper Flagg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	11	39%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Reaves	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56	0.56	0.37	0.20	0.02	15	97%	0.58	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Luka Don?i?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.02	0.02	18	74%	0.32	4	-0.14	11	100%	0.04
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	9	85%	0.18	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.08	-0.03	13	54%	0.15	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	0.02	13	43%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.6	31.1	15.3	24.8	1.6	37.9	142.5
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +39.2%

LAL +8.1%

LAL +9.6%

DAL -9.1%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	LAL	NBA	DAL	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.6	14.1	124.0	133.0	113.7
season	14.0	14.5		108.0	117.0
opponent	14.0	14.0		115.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.6	12.8	18.1	15.6	15.2
LAL	15.8	13.4	13.2	16.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	22	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	15.6	15.0	0.61	16.3	14.1	2.24
Caleb Martin	20	21	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-2	-6	16.2	14.9	1.37	15.5	14.4	1.07
Jaden Hardy	20	21	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-2	-6	16.2	14.9	1.37	15.5	14.4	1.07
Anthony Davis	69	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	15.7	13.9	1.83	14.3	15.4	-1.06
Brandon Williams	95	96	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	15.2	12.0	3.20	14.6	18.0	-3.40
Klay Thompson	72	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	3	-16	15.7	13.7	2.00	14.5	15.0	-0.53
Naji Marshall	80	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	2	-14	15.4	14.1	1.33	14.4	16.2	-1.85
Daniel Gafford	80	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	2	-14	15.4	14.1	1.33	14.4	16.2	-1.85
Cooper Flagg	94	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	15.3	9.5	5.79	14.4	25.5	-11.09
P.J. Washington	83	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	0	-10	15.4	13.4	2.06	14.9	13.0	1.92
Max Christie	87	87	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.15	-14	4	-18	15.3	14.0	1.29	14.5	15.7	-1.18
Ryan Nembhard	46	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.07	-20	10	-30	17.5	13.0	4.48	14.9	14.3	0.59

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	80	80	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-4	18	14.7	14.4	0.28	15.6	13.0	2.60
Gabe Vincent	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-3	16	14.8	14.0	0.77	15.4	14.3	1.13
LeBron James	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	14.6	0.0	14.64	15.2	0.0	15.17
Luka Don?i?	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	14.6	0.0	14.64	15.2	0.0	15.17
Rui Hachimura	79	80	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	3	4	14.9	13.3	1.60	15.5	13.6	1.85
Austin Reaves	86	85	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	6	-2	14.9	12.5	2.36	15.3	13.8	1.52
Jaxson Hayes	66	66	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	7	-4	14.3	15.5	-1.19	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Jake LaRavia	66	66	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	7	-4	14.3	15.5	-1.19	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Maxi Kleber	8	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	13	-16	14.2	14.7	-0.42	11.8	15.5	-3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.32,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 118, GSW 127	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.76,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.2%
NYK 95, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.82,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	93.1%
CHA 95, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.93,1,1,1	93.0%