NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	115		Excitement	10.2 [28]		MVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): +46.6%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	7.4 [73]		LVP	Brandon Williams (DAL): -30.8%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0.47	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.52,0.47	0.15	0.31	-0.01	9	76%	0.48	1	-0.02	11	73%	0.03
Trey Murphy III	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.1	0.14	-0.01	0.03	14	66%	0.10	0	0.00	10	100%	0.13
Yves Missi	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	10	35%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Micah Peavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02	0.09	-0.06	0.05	12	72%	0.11	4	-0.13	5	40%	-0.03
Derik Queen	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.1,0,-0.04	-0.03	-0.07	-0.06	17	51%	0.10	4	-0.15	5	80%	0.01
Jordan Hawkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	9	22%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cooper Flagg	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.5,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.14	0.30	-0.00	19	66%	0.57	2	-0.14	6	83%	0.06
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.12,0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.26	0.00	5	56%	0.41	2	-0.16	6	67%	0.01
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.07	0.04	12	82%	0.29	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.08	-0.01	14	75%	0.26	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moussa Cisse	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	57%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	9	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.23,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.22	-0.08	0.01	12	19%	-0.16	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.4	30.1	13.3	32.8	2.3	38.0	143.2
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +79.4%

NOP -5.6%

DAL +7.0%

NOP -29.3%

NOP -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DAL	NBA	NOP	DAL	NBA
this game	13.4	13.3	14.1	107.5	109.3	113.7
season	14.4	14.0		110.5	108.0
opponent	14.0	13.7		111.2	118.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	11.9	13.0	14.1	14.5	13.4
DAL	15.0	14.2	12.1	12.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Saddiq Bey	85	85	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	13.4	13.3	0.13	14.0	10.8	3.19
Jose Alvarado	87	89	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	1	-5	13.5	12.9	0.52	13.5	12.5	1.04
Yves Missi	86	88	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	13.5	12.8	0.76	13.7	11.8	1.82
Micah Peavy	86	87	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	13.5	12.8	0.76	13.8	11.5	2.31
Zion Williamson	106	106	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	0	-3	13.5	0.0	13.50	13.5	3.5	10.02
Jordan Hawkins	87	86	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	2	-7	13.6	12.5	1.07	13.3	13.5	-0.27
Derik Queen	89	89	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.46	-3	0	-3	13.5	12.6	0.92	13.4	13.1	0.28
Trey Murphy III	99	101	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.36	-7	4	-11	13.4	12.7	0.67	13.3	13.7	-0.41
Jeremiah Fears	98	100	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	4	-11	13.6	11.3	2.23	13.4	12.5	0.90
Herbert Jones	91	92	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	13.4	13.2	0.22	13.3	13.5	-0.20

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	63	63	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-11	25	13.2	13.5	-0.23	14.2	12.2	2.02
Naji Marshall	99	99	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	13.6	10.9	2.67	13.6	10.5	3.11
Dereck Lively II	55	54	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-8	19	13.1	13.5	-0.38	14.4	12.3	2.05
Cooper Flagg	90	90	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	0	3	13.3	13.6	-0.33	13.4	13.4	0.02
Max Christie	90	90	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	0	3	13.3	13.6	-0.33	13.4	13.4	0.02
P.J. Washington	108	107	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	13.3	0.0	13.33	13.4	0.0	13.37
Brandon Williams	61	63	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	14.4	11.9	2.47	13.3	13.5	-0.18
Jaden Hardy	80	79	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	2	-1	13.9	11.7	2.14	13.1	14.3	-1.24
Klay Thompson	87	85	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	3	-3	13.8	11.5	2.25	13.3	13.6	-0.27
Daniel Gafford	97	97	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	3	-3	13.8	9.0	4.82	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Moussa Cisse	21	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	8	-13	15.4	12.8	2.54	12.3	13.6	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.25,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.43,0.38,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.55,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 110, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.38,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.6,0.45,0.29,0.45,0.28,1	90.4%
NYK 84, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	90.3%
ATL 101, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.32,0.17,1	89.2%