NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	6.5 [555]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +27.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Comeback	2.0 [727]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (HOU): -20.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tari Eason	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Dillon Brooks	0.02	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	17	40%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.10	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Steven Adams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Aaron Holiday	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	15	58%	0.09	4	-0.12	3	33%	-0.02
Jalen Green	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	14	41%	-0.02	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	0.02	16	39%	-0.02	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.06	0.02	15	25%	-0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.13	-0.01	21	56%	0.30	1	-0.02	15	93%	0.06
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.05	0.05	11	68%	0.13	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ajay Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Wiggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	20	48%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.07	12	75%	0.09	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	6	42%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.7	28.2	16.3	27.3	2.5	40.2	144.6
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +31.6%

OKC +25.3%

HOU -21.5%

OKC +15.4%

HOU -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	15.3	13.7	14.4	97.0	112.1	113.0
season	14.8	13.8		113.9	117.4
opponent	14.7	14.3		105.6	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.8	17.5	15.0	14.1	15.3
OKC	12.9	12.0	13.8	16.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-14	13	21.3	14.7	6.63	10.5	14.1	-3.61
Steven Adams	12	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-14	13	14.8	15.4	-0.58	14.6	13.6	1.04
Dillon Brooks	70	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-10	5	14.6	17.2	-2.59	13.7	14.0	-0.31
Alperen Sengun	70	70	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-10	5	14.4	17.6	-3.17	13.4	14.6	-1.19
Fred VanVleet	87	86	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	-9	3	14.9	18.7	-3.88	13.8	13.5	0.33
Tari Eason	33	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	-3	-9	17.3	14.4	2.94	13.7	13.8	-0.11
Amen Thompson	60	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	-1	-13	15.2	15.5	-0.28	14.1	13.2	0.89
Jabari Smith Jr.	81	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.02	-15	0	-15	16.0	12.5	3.48	14.0	12.7	1.32
Jalen Green	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	1	-17	15.3	15.5	-0.19	13.9	13.4	0.42

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	77	78	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	-1	17	13.8	13.5	0.38	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Isaiah Hartenstein	71	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	8	-1	13.6	14.1	-0.55	15.0	16.2	-1.27
Jalen Williams	80	81	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	5	5	13.6	14.4	-0.77	15.0	17.0	-2.02
Alex Caruso	40	41	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	-1	17	13.6	13.8	-0.21	16.0	14.9	1.16
Cason Wallace	68	67	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	7	1	13.9	13.5	0.38	14.4	17.3	-2.96
Luguentz Dort	64	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	5	5	13.7	13.8	-0.04	15.5	15.0	0.52
Ajay Mitchell	18	18	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	7	1	10.7	14.4	-3.70	19.6	14.4	5.15
Isaiah Joe	37	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	9	-3	14.1	13.5	0.62	15.5	15.3	0.20
Aaron Wiggins	19	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	17	-19	14.9	13.5	1.48	15.1	15.4	-0.35
Kenrich Williams	21	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	19	-23	15.2	13.3	1.89	16.4	15.1	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 90, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.6%
CHA 86, NOK 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.5%
ATL 86, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.2%