NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	125		Excitement	8.5 [233]		MVP	Christian Braun (DEN): +40.4%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	4.0 [157]		LVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): -8.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarace Walker	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.11	0.00	5	110%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	10	71%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Andrew Nembhard	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.01	14	59%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Myles Turner	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.09	0.15	-0.05	0.01	16	67%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Obi Toppin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	18	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	13	46%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	47%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tony Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	45%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Johnny Furphy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bennedict Mathurin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Braun	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.4	0.40	0.27	0.13	0.01	16	86%	0.40	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	10	67%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12,-0.04	-0.04	0.12	-0.13	0.02	33	59%	0.18	4	-0.21	3	67%	-0.00
Jalen Pickett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	14	50%	0.12	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	0.2	33.1	14.4	24.6	2.5	31.6	134.3
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +16.5%

IND +3.7%

DEN -16.9%

IND +45.5%

IND +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	13.7	13.7	14.4	117.9	115.4	113.1
season	13.9	14.2		115.3	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.7		114.6	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.5	12.5	13.3	14.6	13.7
DEN	13.7	13.7	15.0	12.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarace Walker	46	45	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.59	1	4	-3	13.8	13.6	0.17	12.7	14.5	-1.81
T.J. McConnell	44	43	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	-1	7	12.6	14.5	-1.92	12.8	14.4	-1.66
Aaron Nesmith	64	64	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	-2	9	14.2	13.0	1.18	14.2	13.1	1.08
Bennedict Mathurin	47	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	0	5	13.0	14.2	-1.24	13.4	14.0	-0.54
Thomas Bryant	34	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	2	1	13.2	13.9	-0.75	13.2	14.0	-0.79
Myles Turner	68	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	2	1	13.9	13.4	0.50	14.1	13.2	0.86
Andrew Nembhard	71	69	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	4	-3	14.0	13.0	1.03	14.3	12.6	1.68
Tyrese Haliburton	77	76	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	5	-5	14.2	12.3	1.94	13.5	14.5	-1.04
Tony Bradley	4	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	6	-7	15.0	13.6	1.36	13.2	13.8	-0.57
Johnny Furphy	17	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	5	-5	13.5	13.7	-0.26	12.1	14.0	-1.98
Obi Toppin	58	56	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	5	-5	13.4	14.0	-0.53	15.2	12.0	3.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Pickett	48	51	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.19	9	-14	23	15.1	12.6	2.53	14.9	12.6	2.34
Aaron Gordon	70	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-9	13	13.9	13.4	0.58	14.2	12.5	1.71
Christian Braun	82	85	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-9	13	13.4	15.0	-1.54	14.2	11.7	2.46
Nikola Jokic	82	84	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-6	7	13.5	14.5	-0.96	14.2	11.7	2.48
Julian Strawther	25	24	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	0	-5	14.9	13.4	1.50	11.9	14.2	-2.34
DeAndre Jordan	22	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	1	-7	14.5	13.5	0.96	11.7	14.2	-2.48
Michael Porter Jr.	82	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	14.2	12.0	2.26	14.0	12.2	1.81
Peyton Watson	53	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	9	-23	12.7	14.8	-2.09	12.4	14.9	-2.56
Russell Westbrook	56	55	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	9	-23	12.6	15.1	-2.53	12.6	14.9	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 96, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.09,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.04,0	92.4%
SAC 107, PHX 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.14,0.08,0	91.8%
SAS 113, DEN 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.26,0	91.7%