NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	121		Excitement	10.2 [62]		MVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL): +31.7%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	16.0 [83]		LVP	Pelle Larsson (MIA): -16.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Porter Jr.	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.32	0.11	0.20	-0.00	16	62%	0.34	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.13,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.14	0.03	11	71%	0.28	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Pat Connaughton	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	5	77%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.12,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.06	0.15	-0.09	0.00	21	64%	0.21	3	-0.15	14	71%	0.02
Andre Jackson Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.10	0.00	6	60%	0.09	1	-0.15	3	100%	0.02
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	13	35%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.12	0.17	-0.00	18	63%	0.34	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	10	55%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.08	0.02	15	53%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.13	-0.01	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.17	4	75%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.08	-0.14	0.02	25	55%	0.05	2	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Pelle Larsson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	8	19%	-0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.2	2.0	31.1	14.5	24.4	1.8	35.7	2.8	15.0	151.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	2.4	15.6	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +59.5%

MIL +2.5%

MIA -2.6%

MIA -1.0%

MIA -8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	14.4	114.2	108.5	113.1
season	14.4	14.9		114.2	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.3		111.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	15.1	14.2	14.0	13.7	16.9	14.5
MIA	14.9	14.0	15.4	18.2	14.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	85	86	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.44	17	-11	28	14.4	14.7	-0.28	15.7	14.5	1.18
AJ Green	66	66	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.29	19	-13	32	14.1	15.1	-1.06	16.4	14.1	2.26
Kevin Porter Jr.	80	79	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-7	20	14.0	15.9	-1.90	15.6	15.4	0.19
Brook Lopez	57	61	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	7	-8	15.1	13.8	1.37	14.9	16.3	-1.39
Pat Connaughton	29	28	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.21	16	-10	26	12.8	15.1	-2.29	18.5	14.4	4.06
Gary Trent Jr.	47	45	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	0	6	13.9	15.0	-1.07	15.9	15.2	0.74
Taurean Prince	76	76	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.44	-14	20	-34	15.2	12.7	2.45	14.9	17.1	-2.26
Andre Jackson Jr.	7	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	8	-10	14.9	14.5	0.39	16.3	15.5	0.87
Ryan Rollins	29	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.08	-9	15	-24	16.0	13.9	2.13	14.8	15.8	-0.94
Kyle Kuzma	54	54	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	21	-36	14.6	14.3	0.32	14.0	17.1	-3.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alec Burks	58	59	0.34	-0.84	1.17	-0.05	13	-19	32	15.8	15.1	0.66	14.8	14.1	0.65
Kel'el Ware	38	39	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.16	5	-11	16	14.4	16.1	-1.78	15.2	14.1	1.17
Pelle Larsson	78	77	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-9	12	15.4	15.9	-0.52	14.9	13.3	1.67
Terry Rozier	8	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	2	-10	18.6	15.3	3.37	12.8	14.6	-1.87
Duncan Robinson	65	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.30	2	-8	10	14.5	17.2	-2.71	14.4	14.7	-0.33
Haywood Highsmith	44	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	5	-16	16.9	14.5	2.43	13.5	15.2	-1.71
Kyle Anderson	64	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	1	-8	16.0	14.7	1.32	14.1	15.0	-0.90
Davion Mitchell	78	79	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	4	-14	15.6	15.4	0.21	14.5	14.6	-0.09
Bam Adebayo	87	85	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.54	-11	5	-16	15.4	16.2	-0.85	14.4	15.0	-0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.67,0.53,0.58,0.43,0.47,0.72,0.86,0.93,0.77,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.08,0	89.0%
NYK 136, WAS 132	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.7,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.04,0	88.9%
SEA 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.57,0.59,0.5,0.31,0.54,0.32,0.08,0	88.6%