NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	7.5 [377]		MVP	Chris Paul (SAS): +17.1%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	2.8 [366]		LVP	Trey Alexander (DEN): -17.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.17	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.01	0.13	-0.03	15	57%	0.25	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	15	65%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	2	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Blake Wesley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	6	94%	0.19	3	-0.15	4	50%	-0.01
Malaki Branham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	15	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	18	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Julian Champagnie	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.05	0.04	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.12	-0.01	7	57%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	12	50%	-0.06
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	20	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	13	61%	0.08	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.12	-0.01	25	54%	0.00	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Trey Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	11	32%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	27.2	14.4	29.2	1.8	31.0	127.4
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +58.6%

SAS +1.2%

DEN -8.6%

DEN -2.8%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	13.2	14.1	14.4	106.6	101.0	113.0
season	14.2	14.2		113.0	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.5		114.6	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	11.3	12.3	15.3	14.6	13.2
DEN	13.6	13.4	14.7	14.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sandro Mamukelashvili	52	51	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.13	18	-11	29	12.7	13.8	-1.16	14.6	13.5	1.07
Harrison Barnes	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-2	11	13.1	13.5	-0.39	13.6	15.0	-1.46
Chris Paul	68	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	1	5	13.7	12.3	1.41	14.3	13.6	0.64
Julian Champagnie	70	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	2	3	13.0	13.7	-0.76	13.7	14.8	-1.13
Jordan McLaughlin	38	36	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-1	9	12.5	13.7	-1.16	14.7	13.7	1.01
Stephon Castle	72	70	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.25	-3	10	-13	14.1	11.4	2.66	14.0	14.2	-0.26
Blake Wesley	48	47	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	2	3	12.2	14.1	-1.93	13.8	14.2	-0.41
Malaki Branham	45	44	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	8	-9	13.1	13.4	-0.27	14.2	14.0	0.25
Bismack Biyombo	67	66	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.28	-12	19	-31	14.0	12.0	1.97	14.1	14.0	0.13

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	51	51	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.13	10	-17	27	13.6	14.5	-0.87	13.4	13.1	0.21
Dario Saric	17	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	14.7	13.9	0.77	10.6	13.8	-3.16
Jalen Pickett	76	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-4	1	14.2	13.6	0.70	13.8	12.0	1.83
Trey Alexander	44	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-1	-5	14.7	13.6	1.19	12.6	13.8	-1.20
DeAndre Jordan	78	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-7	7	13.9	14.6	-0.77	13.8	11.4	2.41
Vlatko Cancar	53	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	3	-13	14.6	13.5	1.10	13.4	13.0	0.41
Russell Westbrook	87	89	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-7	7	13.7	16.0	-2.34	13.2	13.4	-0.13
Hunter Tyson	65	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	14.0	14.2	-0.19	13.6	12.7	0.92
Spencer Jones	54	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.10	-13	6	-19	13.9	14.2	-0.27	12.3	14.2	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.71,0.63,0.42,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 108, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.42,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0	92.1%
GSW 113, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.46,0.32,0.08,0,0,0	91.6%
POR 125, MIN 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.57,0.53,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.23,0.08,0	91.3%