NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	117		Excitement	6.8 [470]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +34.6%
Denver Nuggets	127		Comeback	2.1 [838]		LVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL): -20.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Rollins	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.15	0.09	-0.01	9	81%	0.25	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
AJ Green	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.04	-0.02	9	83%	0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.18	-0.02	0.06	17	76%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.02	0.01	9	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.02	15	50%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.02	-0.03	10	38%	0.00	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.12	-0.07	0.02	15	37%	-0.10	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.20	0.14	-0.01	25	68%	0.38	3	-0.04	7	57%	-0.04
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.21	-0.01	0.04	9	105%	0.18	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	15	63%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	15	49%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	2	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	27%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	27.5	15.4	23.6	2.4	30.2	125.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.9%

DEN +5.2%

DEN +18.8%

DEN +7.4%

MIL -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	13.7	14.4	118.2	127.0	113.1
season	14.4	14.0		114.2	118.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		114.7	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.4	15.8	15.5	14.1	15.2
DEN	12.3	11.8	14.5	16.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Rollins	37	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.28	7	-17	24	14.4	15.8	-1.42	14.5	13.2	1.23
Gary Trent Jr.	72	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-5	0	15.0	15.8	-0.74	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Pat Connaughton	36	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-8	6	14.9	15.4	-0.47	13.1	14.0	-0.87
Taurean Prince	66	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-6	2	15.7	14.3	1.36	13.7	13.6	0.13
AJ Green	69	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-11	12	15.1	15.6	-0.47	13.9	13.2	0.73
Kevin Porter Jr.	62	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	7	-24	15.8	14.4	1.42	13.2	14.5	-1.23
Kyle Kuzma	76	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.02	-16	6	-22	15.1	15.8	-0.70	13.8	13.4	0.44
Brook Lopez	77	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	4	-18	15.5	14.5	1.01	13.8	13.2	0.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	72	70	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.19	15	-5	20	13.6	14.1	-0.55	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Nikola Jokic	79	77	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-4	18	13.8	13.2	0.60	15.5	14.5	1.01
Christian Braun	79	79	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-3	16	13.8	13.4	0.42	15.1	15.8	-0.70
Michael Porter Jr.	69	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-1	12	13.9	13.4	0.47	15.2	15.2	0.00
Jamal Murray	77	76	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	3	4	14.0	12.8	1.20	15.2	15.4	-0.19
Russell Westbrook	50	50	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	11	-12	12.5	14.9	-2.46	15.4	15.1	0.32
Aaron Gordon	36	38	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	11	-12	14.8	13.1	1.76	15.3	15.2	0.08
Spencer Jones	2	0	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	10	-10	1.0	14.0	-12.97	0.0	15.2	-15.24
Jalen Pickett	28	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	13	-16	14.6	13.4	1.20	15.9	15.0	0.94
DeAndre Jordan	8	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	15	-20	11.9	13.9	-1.99	13.1	15.4	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.75,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.56,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 92, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.88,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
TOR 81, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,1	91.9%
POR 102, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.98,1	91.8%