NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	121		Excitement	4.3 [959]		MVP	Keegan Murray (SAC): +22.1%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	1.1 [1191]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (SAC): -12.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alex Caruso	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.01	8	79%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.15	0.00	0.03	7	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.03	14	56%	0.12	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Kenrich Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	23	57%	0.13	5	-0.09	10	90%	0.05
Dillon Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	0.01	0.07	9	72%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Adam Flagler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Branden Carlson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	57%	0.01	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keegan Murray	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.25	0.03	0.05	15	87%	0.26	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	69%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	16	58%	0.05	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	11	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Crawford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Taylor	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	0.00	0.12	4	112%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	15	32%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	0.00	-0.01	12	29%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.3	25.6	16.6	32.2	3.5	30.6	137.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +34.4%

OKC +12.3%

OKC +6.1%

SAC -3.9%

OKC +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAC	NBA	OKC	SAC	NBA
this game	13.1	15.6	14.4	119.8	105.0	113.0
season	13.8	14.3		117.4	115.1
opponent	14.6	14.7		114.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.8	12.7	12.7	14.0	13.1
SAC	17.2	17.3	15.0	13.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Caruso	52	51	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.14	23	-7	30	11.7	14.5	-2.76	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Chet Holmgren	71	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	6	4	13.3	12.6	0.67	16.0	14.7	1.29
Isaiah Joe	60	59	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.26	22	-6	28	12.3	14.2	-1.90	15.6	15.6	0.07
Isaiah Hartenstein	57	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	10	-4	13.9	12.0	1.94	15.7	15.4	0.34
Jaylin Williams	44	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	6	4	12.0	13.9	-1.94	15.4	15.7	-0.34
Kenrich Williams	57	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	11	-6	13.7	12.3	1.37	15.9	15.2	0.69
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	68	67	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.22	13	3	10	12.7	13.9	-1.20	16.5	13.8	2.66
Luguentz Dort	64	65	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.21	12	4	8	14.0	11.5	2.50	15.9	15.1	0.79
Dillon Jones	24	24	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	19	-22	12.9	13.1	-0.20	14.5	16.0	-1.50
Adam Flagler	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	25	-34	18.0	12.9	5.13	5.5	16.0	-10.52
Branden Carlson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	25	-34	18.0	12.9	5.13	5.5	16.0	-10.52

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Crawford	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-25	34	5.5	16.0	-10.52	18.0	12.9	5.13
Isaac Jones	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-25	34	5.5	16.0	-10.52	18.0	12.9	5.13
Terry Taylor	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-25	34	5.5	16.0	-10.52	18.0	12.9	5.13
Doug McDermott	9	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.25	7	-23	30	11.3	16.0	-4.69	16.4	12.7	3.71
Keegan Murray	75	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.13	-9	-7	-2	15.8	15.1	0.64	13.0	13.2	-0.13
Devin Carter	7	7	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-9	2	17.7	15.4	2.27	10.3	13.3	-2.99
Keon Ellis	77	79	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-6	-4	15.9	14.7	1.23	13.2	12.6	0.55
Domantas Sabonis	79	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	-6	-4	16.0	14.1	1.84	13.1	13.0	0.09
DeMar DeRozan	79	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	-6	-4	16.0	14.1	1.84	13.1	13.0	0.09
Jonas Valanciunas	17	17	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	-1	-14	16.2	15.5	0.69	11.8	13.3	-1.50
Markelle Fultz	23	22	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-10	4	14.7	15.9	-1.23	12.6	13.2	-0.55
Jake LaRavia	44	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	0	-16	16.2	15.1	1.08	11.8	14.2	-2.40
Zach LaVine	78	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.34	-31	15	-46	16.1	14.0	2.05	13.2	12.6	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
BOS 122, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
SAC 115, CLE 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.8%