NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	117		Excitement	7.8 [351]		MVP	Spencer Dinwiddie (DAL): +32.3%
Dallas Mavericks	123		Comeback	1.1 [289]		LVP	Dennis Schroder (DET): -16.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Duren	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	5	87%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	15	52%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	30	54%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Ausar Thompson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	9	63%	0.09	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	11	41%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.15,-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	7	61%	-0.00	4	-0.16	4	75%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.32	0.32	0.23	0.11	0.02	12	84%	0.34	1	-0.02	13	85%	0.04
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	12	68%	0.21	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Kai Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.01	6	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	14	59%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	16	71%	0.28	9	-0.31	6	67%	-0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	9	30%	-0.04	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	29.3	14.7	30.4	1.6	43.4	147.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +45.9%

DAL +7.8%

DAL +6.5%

DET -15.5%

DAL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.2	13.6	14.4	112.5	119.4	113.0
season	14.1	14.3		113.7	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.5		114.4	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.5	14.9	13.6	13.0	14.2
DAL	13.9	14.5	13.1	13.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Stewart	45	43	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-9	12	14.6	13.9	0.62	13.8	13.5	0.25
Dennis Schroder	66	65	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-17	28	13.4	15.6	-2.25	14.2	12.6	1.69
Simone Fontecchio	33	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-9	12	15.1	13.8	1.35	14.0	13.4	0.60
Ronald Holland II	27	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-1	-4	14.6	14.1	0.53	13.0	13.8	-0.80
Tim Hardaway Jr.	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	3	-12	16.1	13.8	2.24	12.1	14.0	-1.90
Ausar Thompson	33	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	5	-16	15.1	13.8	1.30	13.3	13.8	-0.47
Malik Beasley	77	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-9	12	14.1	14.4	-0.23	14.2	12.1	2.03
Cade Cunningham	87	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	13.8	16.5	-2.71	13.3	15.1	-1.81
Jalen Duren	59	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	2	-10	13.9	14.6	-0.62	13.5	13.8	-0.25
Tobias Harris	75	75	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	6	-18	14.1	14.4	-0.29	13.4	14.1	-0.67

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Williams	41	40	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-4	14	12.8	14.2	-1.44	13.4	14.7	-1.34
P.J. Washington	85	85	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	1	4	13.1	16.1	-3.02	14.0	14.9	-0.91
Kai Jones	49	49	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	-1	8	14.4	12.9	1.54	15.5	13.1	2.44
Naji Marshall	75	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	2	2	13.9	12.9	1.05	14.4	13.7	0.67
Spencer Dinwiddie	82	82	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.34	-1	7	-8	14.1	11.8	2.34	14.3	14.0	0.26
Max Christie	54	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	0	6	12.9	14.4	-1.58	13.8	14.7	-0.93
Klay Thompson	68	69	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	3	0	13.2	14.4	-1.18	14.2	14.1	0.13
Dwight Powell	41	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	8	-10	14.1	13.3	0.75	13.7	14.6	-0.94
Jaden Hardy	20	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	15.1	13.3	1.83	14.7	14.1	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.81,0.93,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.93,0.84,0.99,1,1	94.9%
CHA 85, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.95,1	94.5%
VAN 101, UTA 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.1%