NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	126		Excitement	10.4 [44]		MVP	Jordan Poole (WAS): +56.8%
Denver Nuggets	123		Comeback	13.0 [32]		LVP	Bub Carrington (WAS): -21.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Poole	0.57	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.57	0.03	0.53	-0.00	11	79%	0.75	6	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Kyshawn George	0.49	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.49	0.10	0.40	0.01	11	73%	0.58	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Justin Champagnie	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.12	-0.02	10	73%	0.27	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Alex Sarr	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.07	0.03	28	56%	0.19	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.08
AJ Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Richaun Holmes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Corey Kispert	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bub Carrington	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	12	37%	-0.08	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.35	0.35	0.08	0.27	-0.00	16	69%	0.42	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.08	0.23	0.01	16	56%	0.29	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.05,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.12	0.01	19	58%	0.35	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.11	0.11	0.15	-0.04	0.00	30	60%	0.20	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.04
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	4	112%	0.10	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	46%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	26.7	13.8	34.2	2.0	29.4	131.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +35.7%

WAS +4.0%

WAS +2.9%

WAS +13.6%

DEN -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	13.3	14.4	121.2	115.0	113.1
season	14.0	14.0		105.3	118.4
opponent	14.6	14.1		114.7	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.5	14.4	10.6	16.7	14.0
DEN	12.1	10.9	15.9	14.6	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Champagnie	84	86	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-10	23	13.4	16.4	-3.06	14.5	8.6	5.86
Alex Sarr	71	72	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.50	8	-5	13	12.9	16.4	-3.53	13.6	12.7	0.87
Bub Carrington	65	67	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-8	19	14.4	13.3	1.04	13.0	13.8	-0.80
Jordan Poole	66	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.61	-4	7	-11	13.2	15.4	-2.27	13.5	13.1	0.35
Kyshawn George	86	88	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.48	-3	6	-9	14.1	13.6	0.51	13.4	13.2	0.14
AJ Johnson	38	39	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.20	7	-4	11	15.4	13.2	2.27	13.1	13.5	-0.35
Khris Middleton	44	46	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	9	-15	13.0	14.7	-1.62	13.2	13.4	-0.15
Corey Kispert	33	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	9	-15	15.7	13.2	2.56	11.1	14.4	-3.32
Richaun Holmes	33	35	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	8	-13	16.4	12.9	3.53	12.7	13.6	-0.87

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	81	79	0.80	-1.30	2.10	0.24	19	-22	41	13.6	12.5	1.04	14.3	13.0	1.24
Zeke Nnaji	45	43	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.12	4	-7	11	13.1	13.5	-0.45	15.7	12.8	2.97
Vlatko Cancar	6	6	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-3	3	9.3	13.6	-4.23	13.3	14.0	-0.69
Jalen Pickett	23	21	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	4	-11	11.4	13.8	-2.41	14.5	13.8	0.68
Nikola Jokic	86	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.52	6	-9	15	13.6	12.1	1.53	13.6	15.6	-1.96
Russell Westbrook	82	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-3	3	13.3	13.4	-0.04	14.0	13.9	0.08
Christian Braun	80	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.59	-2	-1	-1	13.4	13.1	0.24	13.0	16.7	-3.74
Michael Porter Jr.	82	82	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.53	-13	10	-23	13.7	12.0	1.78	13.5	15.7	-2.16
Peyton Watson	50	48	-1.03	0.53	-1.56	-0.38	-22	19	-41	13.2	13.4	-0.20	14.7	13.3	1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.49,0.65,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.77,0.78,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.74,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.54,0.57,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.8,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.85,0.88,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.85,0	89.0%
ORL 87, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.8,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.47,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.74,0	88.9%
PHI 112, BKN 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.68,0.54,0.32,0.73,0	88.9%