NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	118		Excitement	7.5 [368]		MVP	Chet Holmgren (OKC): +16.9%
Boston Celtics	112		Comeback	1.3 [497]		LVP	Aaron Wiggins (OKC): -16.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chet Holmgren	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	14	66%	0.20	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.01	6	62%	0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Joe	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	7	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	0.00	7	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	20	67%	0.20	5	-0.11	11	91%	0.05
Cason Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	6	87%	0.15	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Ousmane Dieng	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.02	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	12	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Aaron Wiggins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	9	0%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	3	90%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	14	64%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	14	71%	0.16	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.07	-0.01	23	65%	0.22	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	10	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	0.04	10	40%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	15	33%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.8	26.3	14.7	29.0	2.8	35.4	136.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +13.1%

OKC +26.3%

BOS -4.8%

OKC +13.6%

OKC +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	BOS	NBA	OKC	BOS	NBA
this game	13.7	16.0	14.4	120.4	116.7	113.1
season	13.7	15.2		118.5	118.8
opponent	14.4	14.7		109.5	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.1	12.8	13.2	15.0	13.7
BOS	17.2	16.0	16.2	14.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cason Wallace	64	62	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.14	13	-7	20	13.7	13.7	0.01	16.0	16.0	-0.00
Chet Holmgren	67	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.21	9	-3	12	14.6	11.9	2.74	16.5	14.9	1.60
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	78	77	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.29	3	3	0	13.4	15.0	-1.58	16.0	15.8	0.22
Aaron Wiggins	41	40	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	-2	10	13.6	13.8	-0.19	17.0	15.2	1.85
Luguentz Dort	79	77	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.26	1	5	-4	13.7	14.1	-0.38	16.0	15.9	0.09
Isaiah Joe	50	48	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	5	-4	14.1	13.3	0.81	16.0	15.9	0.10
Isaiah Hartenstein	54	53	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	5	-4	12.9	14.7	-1.82	15.2	17.0	-1.78
Ousmane Dieng	13	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	3	0	13.9	13.7	0.21	16.1	16.0	0.13
Kenrich Williams	44	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.32	-9	15	-24	13.7	13.8	-0.03	15.0	16.8	-1.79

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Hauser	25	25	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-12	18	12.8	17.1	-4.28	12.5	14.2	-1.70
Luke Kornet	28	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-5	4	16.1	15.9	0.14	14.0	13.6	0.36
Torrey Craig	10	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-4	2	15.0	16.1	-1.08	8.7	14.3	-5.62
Payton Pritchard	51	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-7	8	15.5	16.6	-1.10	13.8	13.7	0.02
Jaylen Brown	74	77	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-4	2	16.3	14.9	1.43	14.1	12.5	1.61
Jayson Tatum	83	85	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-10	14	15.8	17.0	-1.19	13.6	15.0	-1.45
Al Horford	67	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.29	-9	3	-12	16.4	15.1	1.29	14.1	12.8	1.31
Jrue Holiday	69	68	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.29	-14	8	-22	16.4	14.9	1.45	13.6	14.1	-0.51
Derrick White	73	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.33	-13	7	-20	16.6	13.9	2.70	14.4	11.7	2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	92.8%
POR 101, MEM 85	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.25,0.15,0.33,0.25,0.11,0.02,0,0	92.6%
POR 89, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	92.3%