NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	133		Excitement	8.5 [228]		MVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): +35.2%
San Antonio Spurs	129		Comeback	2.5 [252]		LVP	Max Christie (DAL): -18.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.32	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32	0.21	0.11	-0.01	14	74%	0.32	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Kessler Edwards	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27	0.17	0.13	0.03	12	79%	0.27	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.15,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.04	0.01	16	74%	0.35	2	-0.13	6	100%	0.05
Naji Marshall	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1	0.01	0.11	0.02	16	61%	0.28	5	-0.18	6	100%	0.03
Dwight Powell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	69%	0.10	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Caleb Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Exum	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.07	0.04	15	37%	-0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.35	0.35	0.23	0.14	0.02	16	76%	0.37	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.24	0.24	0.27	0.03	0.05	14	94%	0.29	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.07
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.01,0	0.00	0.09	-0.08	0.01	22	53%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	5	55%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	12	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.05
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	13	50%	0.02	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	28.6	14.4	27.6	2.5	36.3	136.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.3%

DAL +34.2%

DAL +13.0%

SAS -14.9%

SAS -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	13.8	14.4	135.7	131.6	113.1
season	14.3	14.2		113.3	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.4		115.6	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.4	15.6	15.6	16.7	15.5
SAS	12.2	14.4	15.0	14.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kessler Edwards	71	71	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-7	18	15.3	16.3	-1.04	13.2	15.5	-2.26
Dante Exum	47	46	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-12	28	16.0	15.1	0.88	14.5	13.3	1.19
Spencer Dinwiddie	76	77	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	2	0	14.9	17.7	-2.76	14.1	13.1	0.96
Klay Thompson	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.44	-3	7	-10	16.0	14.3	1.69	13.6	14.5	-0.81
Naji Marshall	81	82	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	5	-6	15.7	14.9	0.80	13.6	15.1	-1.45
Caleb Martin	41	41	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	1	2	14.3	16.5	-2.19	14.9	13.1	1.81
Dwight Powell	40	40	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	3	-2	16.1	15.2	0.94	14.9	13.1	1.78
Max Christie	61	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	13	-22	16.1	14.6	1.43	13.0	15.2	-2.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	46	46	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-11	18	13.4	14.2	-0.82	16.1	15.1	1.03
Bismack Biyombo	35	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	12.1	14.8	-2.74	17.4	14.5	2.91
Devin Vassell	70	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-7	10	13.8	13.9	-0.06	15.3	16.0	-0.65
Sandro Mamukelashvili	21	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	1	-6	14.7	13.6	1.04	13.8	16.1	-2.24
Blake Wesley	20	20	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	3	-10	15.1	13.5	1.57	17.9	14.9	2.96
Julian Champagnie	32	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	6	-16	14.5	13.5	0.97	13.4	16.6	-3.17
Harrison Barnes	79	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.46	7	-11	18	13.4	15.7	-2.28	16.1	13.4	2.69
De'Aaron Fox	70	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.54	2	-6	8	13.3	15.2	-1.86	16.0	14.4	1.56
Keldon Johnson	57	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	1	-6	15.0	12.2	2.80	14.8	16.7	-1.92
Stephon Castle	60	60	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.32	-13	9	-22	14.3	13.2	1.08	14.8	16.7	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.09,0,0	92.9%
GSW 100, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.07,0.04,0,0	92.7%
CHI 102, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.01,0	92.5%