NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	105		Excitement	9.0 [176]		MVP	Miles Bridges (CHA): +84.8%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	16.7 [28]		LVP	LaMelo Ball (CHA): -25.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Bridges	0.85	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.05,0.42,0.85	0.25	0.63	0.03	19	80%	0.99	2	-0.14	6	100%	0.06
Mark Williams	0.28	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.28	0.17	0.12	0.02	13	73%	0.28	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DaQuan Jeffries	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Wendell Moore Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moussa Diabate	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malachi Flynn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Josh Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaMelo Ball	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25	-0.18	-0.09	-0.02	21	33%	-0.17	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.18	0.01	9	67%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,0,0.16,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	17	55%	0.20	3	-0.17	4	50%	-0.04
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	16	59%	0.07	1	-0.06	7	71%	-0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	17	53%	0.11	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	5	42%	0.06	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	25.6	16.4	28.6	2.4	37.2	135.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +10.0%

CHA +18.9%

MIA -5.2%

CHA +19.9%

CHA +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.4	110.5	107.4	113.1
season	15.0	14.9		106.2	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.2		111.2	115.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.5	14.8	17.0	14.2	15.3
MIA	15.8	16.5	13.6	14.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaQuan Jeffries	68	69	1.06	-0.56	1.63	0.42	22	-19	41	15.1	16.0	-0.96	15.1	14.6	0.54
Josh Green	63	63	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.44	15	-12	27	15.3	15.4	-0.14	15.0	15.0	-0.05
Mark Williams	59	56	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.48	13	-10	23	14.9	16.0	-1.05	15.1	14.8	0.21
LaMelo Ball	72	73	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.49	6	-3	9	15.4	15.1	0.29	14.6	16.2	-1.64
Miles Bridges	74	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-3	9	14.6	17.9	-3.22	15.1	14.4	0.72
Malachi Flynn	28	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	0	3	15.7	15.2	0.52	16.1	14.5	1.60
Moussa Diabate	19	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	2	-1	13.5	15.8	-2.28	15.8	14.8	1.00
Wendell Moore Jr.	14	12	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.03	-10	13	-23	16.9	15.1	1.77	16.4	14.8	1.66
Jusuf Nurkic	18	20	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.03	-11	14	-25	17.7	14.8	2.93	14.6	15.1	-0.47
Seth Curry	29	30	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.03	-12	15	-27	15.4	15.3	0.05	14.4	15.2	-0.83
Nick Smith Jr.	31	30	-0.54	1.04	-1.59	-0.02	-18	21	-39	17.0	14.5	2.50	13.8	15.5	-1.71

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	27	28	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.03	12	-15	27	15.0	14.9	0.10	15.2	15.4	-0.14
Terry Rozier	30	29	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.10	9	-12	21	14.7	15.1	-0.39	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Kyle Anderson	1	1	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-3	3	4.0	15.1	-11.09	2.0	15.5	-13.49
Pelle Larsson	8	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	4	-11	17.6	14.7	2.90	12.5	15.6	-3.11
Davion Mitchell	44	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	4	-11	15.9	14.2	1.71	15.7	15.0	0.75
Kel'el Ware	45	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	8	-19	15.7	14.3	1.41	14.7	16.0	-1.35
Duncan Robinson	50	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.50	8	-11	19	14.5	15.5	-0.95	15.4	15.3	0.04
Haywood Highsmith	61	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.46	6	-9	15	14.8	15.2	-0.37	15.9	14.4	1.45
Bam Adebayo	75	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.46	6	-9	15	14.5	16.7	-2.26	15.8	13.5	2.34
Andrew Wiggins	68	67	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.44	-15	12	-27	14.9	15.0	-0.10	15.4	15.2	0.14
Tyler Herro	66	65	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.48	-16	13	-29	14.8	15.3	-0.49	15.4	15.3	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.62,0.45,0.52,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.68,0.45,0.78,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 113, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.81,0.75,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.68,0.58,0	90.5%
NJN 89, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.42,0	90.2%
MIN 100, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.28,0	89.6%