NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	5.5 [715]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +22.1%
Boston Celtics	110		Comeback	1.1 [1007]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -14.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.02	20	62%	0.17	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	15	67%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0	0.07	-0.04	0.03	22	52%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Julian Strawther	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	13	44%	-0.01	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.10	-0.01	13	65%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.00	-0.00	7	79%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	57%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.04	12	68%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	15	56%	0.07	5	-0.09	9	89%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	15	42%	-0.00	6	-0.15	8	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.5	27.3	14.4	30.2	3.0	32.1	138.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +25.8%

BOS +9.3%

BOS +4.8%

BOS +5.1%

BOS +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	16.0	14.4	108.4	117.0	113.0
season	14.2	15.3		117.1	118.3
opponent	14.6	14.5		109.2	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	14.8	14.1	14.3	14.5
BOS	15.2	17.9	15.3	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	17	14	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-11	15	13.2	14.8	-1.53	17.1	15.8	1.36
Jalen Pickett	16	15	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-12	17	15.0	14.4	0.61	14.5	16.3	-1.81
Nikola Jokic	79	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	13.7	18.5	-4.82	16.1	15.6	0.46
DeAndre Jordan	16	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	0	-7	18.5	13.7	4.82	15.6	16.1	-0.46
Russell Westbrook	75	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-4	1	13.7	17.3	-3.55	15.9	16.4	-0.57
Jamal Murray	76	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-4	1	15.0	12.6	2.39	15.7	17.1	-1.32
Julian Strawther	26	27	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.14	-18	11	-29	15.3	14.2	1.12	17.1	15.5	1.57
Christian Braun	92	91	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-5	3	14.4	17.7	-3.28	16.2	9.0	7.22
Michael Porter Jr.	78	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.29	-11	4	-15	14.8	13.2	1.53	15.8	17.1	-1.36

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-3	13	15.8	16.5	-0.69	14.5	14.5	-0.07
Derrick White	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	15.4	17.3	-1.89	14.6	14.3	0.30
Al Horford	71	70	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	3	1	16.0	15.9	0.16	13.8	16.4	-2.59
Neemias Queta	30	31	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	-4	15	15.2	16.4	-1.16	17.4	13.1	4.34
Payton Pritchard	47	48	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	-3	13	16.0	16.0	0.02	16.0	13.0	3.00
Jayson Tatum	76	77	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	9	-11	16.4	14.2	2.25	13.6	18.3	-4.74
Sam Hauser	34	35	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	4	-1	15.3	16.4	-1.14	15.0	14.2	0.75
Luke Kornet	62	62	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	11	-15	16.8	14.5	2.31	13.2	16.9	-3.75
Torrey Craig	10	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	10	-13	17.1	15.9	1.24	15.7	14.3	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.84,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 83, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,1	95.8%
SEA 86, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.72,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.98,1	95.2%
NJN 81, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%