NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	134		Excitement	7.6 [376]		MVP	Jordan Poole (WAS): +27.7%
Washington Wizards	124		Comeback	1.8 [1149]		LVP	Corey Kispert (WAS): -5.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.05	-0.01	11	77%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.12,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.11	-0.01	26	58%	0.26	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Evan Mobley	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	16	67%	0.22	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Ty Jerome	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.03	12	52%	0.13	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darius Garland	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.06	0.03	15	70%	0.22	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Jaylon Tyson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	2	100%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Jarrett Allen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Emoni Bates	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Porter Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Poole	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.10	-0.00	32	60%	0.33	3	-0.05	11	82%	0.01
Kyshawn George	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	-0.03	-0.05	11	71%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	50%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	7	60%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Bub Carrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.03	9	72%	0.10	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	12	53%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.00
Tristan Vukcevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.00	10	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	28.7	14.7	34.4	2.4	31.6	138.3
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +33.6%

CLE +12.2%

CLE +1.9%

CLE +0.1%

CLE +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	WAS	NBA	CLE	WAS	NBA
this game	13.9	14.6	14.4	132.7	122.8	113.0
season	13.7	14.0		120.5	105.3
opponent	14.1	14.9		117.6	110.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	12.0	14.1	14.6	15.3	13.9
WAS	12.8	14.7	17.3	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Jerome	52	52	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	1	8	13.7	14.1	-0.31	14.9	14.3	0.52
Donovan Mitchell	73	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-1	12	13.5	14.9	-1.32	14.9	13.9	0.93
Evan Mobley	72	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-3	16	13.5	14.9	-1.40	14.8	14.1	0.76
Craig Porter Jr.	48	48	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	3	4	13.5	14.3	-0.80	14.5	14.7	-0.14
Jaylon Tyson	42	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.19	5	5	0	13.9	13.9	-0.08	13.5	15.4	-1.88
Max Strus	64	64	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	1	8	14.1	13.5	0.57	15.2	13.5	1.74
Jarrett Allen	57	56	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	3	4	14.4	13.2	1.23	14.8	14.4	0.43
Darius Garland	67	65	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.12	8	2	6	14.1	13.4	0.74	15.1	13.8	1.26
Emoni Bates	11	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.14	-8	18	-26	16.2	13.6	2.56	10.1	15.2	-5.08
Tristan Thompson	19	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.22	-11	21	-32	13.9	13.9	-0.01	13.2	15.0	-1.79

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tristan Vukcevic	34	35	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.22	10	-20	30	12.7	15.6	-2.83	14.4	13.6	0.76
Jordan Poole	76	79	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-8	6	14.9	13.6	1.35	14.2	12.8	1.38
Anthony Gill	14	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	-3	-4	15.5	14.5	1.03	11.2	14.3	-3.10
Kyshawn George	74	73	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-12	14	14.3	15.6	-1.34	14.1	13.5	0.60
Bilal Coulibaly	88	89	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-10	10	14.3	16.6	-2.30	13.8	14.8	-1.06
AJ Johnson	20	18	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-6	2	13.8	14.8	-0.95	14.1	13.9	0.26
Corey Kispert	57	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-6	2	15.2	13.8	1.37	13.9	13.9	0.06
Richaun Holmes	66	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.05	-20	10	-30	15.8	12.4	3.43	13.8	14.1	-0.33
Bub Carrington	76	78	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.07	-25	15	-40	14.4	15.4	-0.99	13.8	14.2	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.38,0.36,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, PHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.17,0	93.0%
NOK 95, MEM 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0	92.6%
CHI 89, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.5%