NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	116		Excitement	8.1 [292]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAC): +32.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	114		Comeback	1.1 [522]		LVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): -12.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.18,0.25,0.33	0.17	0.19	0.03	25	61%	0.33	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Keegan Murray	0.12	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Monk	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	23	52%	0.19	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.07
Trey Lyles	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	81%	0.14	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.01	15	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27	0.27	0.25	0.08	0.06	19	77%	0.27	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.09	0.03	9	90%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jaylen Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.02	17	58%	0.10	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.12,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Garza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rob Dillingham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	21	46%	-0.02	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.3	26.4	15.4	25.7	3.3	36.8	134.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +31.3%

MIN -6.9%

SAC +24.4%

MIN -1.7%

SAC +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.3	14.4	120.8	118.8	113.0
season	14.3	14.7		115.1	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.6		110.2	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.5	15.2	13.4	15.6	14.7
MIN	15.5	16.7	15.4	13.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Domantas Sabonis	73	74	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.41	8	-6	14	14.8	14.1	0.75	15.7	14.2	1.45
Keon Ellis	68	69	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.43	7	-5	12	14.3	15.5	-1.14	15.9	14.0	1.87
Malik Monk	84	84	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	-1	4	14.4	16.7	-2.30	15.6	13.4	2.20
DeMar DeRozan	76	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.50	-1	3	-4	14.4	15.6	-1.19	15.2	15.8	-0.64
Keegan Murray	80	79	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.38	-2	4	-6	14.1	17.5	-3.41	15.3	15.5	-0.23
Devin Carter	16	16	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	0	2	14.4	14.7	-0.34	13.5	15.7	-2.21
Trey Lyles	46	45	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	15.8	13.6	2.16	14.9	15.8	-0.90
Doug McDermott	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	3	-4	16.9	14.3	2.58	16.6	15.2	1.42
Isaac Jones	25	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.00	-6	8	-14	15.6	14.3	1.28	14.0	15.8	-1.87

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Clark	36	37	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-2	2	15.1	15.5	-0.42	15.2	14.3	0.87
Luka Garza	11	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	0	-2	14.7	15.4	-0.70	12.9	14.8	-1.95
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	44	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	15.4	15.3	0.12	16.1	13.5	2.69
Rob Dillingham	28	28	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	4	-10	15.2	15.4	-0.23	15.9	14.2	1.70
Mike Conley	53	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-7	12	15.4	15.3	0.12	13.8	15.7	-1.88
Naz Reid	82	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.45	3	-5	8	15.2	16.3	-1.10	14.7	14.3	0.38
Anthony Edwards	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-2	2	15.2	15.8	-0.58	13.9	17.4	-3.47
Jaden McDaniels	73	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.7	14.3	1.37	14.3	15.6	-1.24
Rudy Gobert	77	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	2	-6	15.5	14.6	0.89	14.8	13.7	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.3%
PHX 106, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.2,0.07,0.08,0,0,0,0	93.2%
SAS 91, UTA 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.23,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	93.2%