NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	121		Excitement	5.7 [676]		MVP	Kevin Durant (PHX): +23.0%
Phoenix Suns	113		Comeback	3.3 [386]		LVP	Devin Booker (PHX): -14.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.14	0.06	-0.01	14	77%	0.27	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Julius Randle	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.05	16	67%	0.19	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Rob Dillingham	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Edwards	0.07	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	20	67%	0.23	7	-0.16	9	89%	0.01
Jaden McDaniels	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.05	7	78%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Luka Garza	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Minott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	4	75%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.27	0.06	0.10	19	79%	0.23	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.05	10	68%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	7	79%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Oso Ighodaro	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Collin Gillespie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Richards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Dunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Booker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.08	0.03	19	65%	0.09	9	-0.23	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	28.2	15.5	32.4	2.7	39.2	144.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +38.9%

MIN +8.6%

PHX -2.6%

MIN +8.1%

PHX -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	PHX	NBA	MIN	PHX	NBA
this game	13.8	15.6	14.4	123.5	115.3	113.0
season	14.7	15.0		114.8	114.3
opponent	14.2	14.7		117.4	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	14.8	11.8	14.4	13.8
PHX	15.9	14.6	17.4	14.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	72	72	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.26	14	-6	20	13.6	14.4	-0.84	15.6	15.5	0.06
Anthony Edwards	83	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-2	12	13.4	15.8	-2.35	15.6	15.4	0.25
Jaylen Clark	20	20	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	-1	10	13.0	14.0	-0.95	16.4	15.4	1.03
Jaden McDaniels	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	3	2	13.5	15.1	-1.64	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Julius Randle	74	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	12	-16	14.1	13.0	1.12	15.2	16.7	-1.56
Rudy Gobert	66	69	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	-1	10	14.3	12.8	1.48	15.5	15.7	-0.20
Rob Dillingham	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	5	-2	14.1	13.7	0.37	16.7	15.1	1.52
Mike Conley	61	62	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	12	-16	14.3	13.1	1.21	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Luka Garza	9	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	7	-6	13.9	13.8	0.09	18.2	15.3	2.91
Josh Minott	0	1	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	11	-14	0.0	13.8	-13.81	12.0	15.6	-3.62

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Richards	50	49	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.03	4	-12	16	16.3	14.8	1.55	14.7	13.0	1.69
Oso Ighodaro	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	9.0	15.6	-6.65	0.0	13.8	-13.81
Collin Gillespie	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	9.0	15.6	-6.65	0.0	13.8	-13.81
Devin Booker	85	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-11	14	15.2	18.1	-2.88	14.2	11.1	3.15
Bradley Beal	50	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-10	12	15.5	15.7	-0.17	13.8	13.8	0.00
Ryan Dunn	17	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	18.4	15.0	3.42	12.7	14.0	-1.33
Tyus Jones	50	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	1	-10	15.6	15.5	0.12	13.9	13.7	0.18
Kevin Durant	81	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-1	-6	15.7	15.0	0.70	13.4	15.8	-2.35
Grayson Allen	60	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-6	4	15.0	16.6	-1.59	13.5	14.3	-0.88
Mason Plumlee	31	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	6	-20	15.9	15.4	0.52	12.8	14.2	-1.45
Royce O'Neale	64	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	2	-12	15.2	16.3	-1.05	14.1	13.3	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.4,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.21,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 92, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.0%
OKC 105, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
DEN 106, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.05,0	93.8%